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Tropical Depression Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2021-08-17 10:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 170840 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COLUMBUS GA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 31
2021-08-17 10:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 170840 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...FRED WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 85.0W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF COLUMBUS GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 85.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Fred will move across western and northern Georgia today, across the southern Appalachian Mountains tonight, and into the central Appalachians by early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days and Fred is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight and merge with a frontal system on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Today Portions of Georgia and the Southern Appalachians... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected. Through Thursday Central Appalachians including portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge Escarpment today. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Storm Fred, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this evening across parts of Georgia, the western Carolinas, and southwestern Virginia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Tropical Depression Fred. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Discussion Number 31
2021-08-17 10:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 170840 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Fred has moved farther inland and is now located near the border of southwestern Georgia and southeastern Alabama. Between 0400-0600 UTC, Doppler radar data from Tallahassee, Florida, still showed 68-70 kt velocities between 9,000-10,000 ft associated with a solid band of convection in the northeastern quadrant. Using 50 percent of those values supported keeping Fred as a 35-kt tropical storm at 0600 UTC. This intensity was also supported by 30-kt winds on the west side of the low-level circulation noted in surface observations. Since that time, however, the solid band of convection has become fragmented and the thunderstorm activity has broken up into more discrete cells. Satellite and radar imagery also indicate that the mid- and upper-level circulations have decoupled and sheared out to the north of the low-level circulation. As a result, Fred has been downgraded to a tropical depression at the 0900 UTC advisory time. Weakening will continue through today as Fred moves farther inland over Georgia and into the southern Appalachians, with Fred likely becoming a remnant low later tonight before merging with a frontal system over the northern Appalachians on Wednesday. Fred has continued to move north-northeastward, or 015/12 kt. For the remainder of today, Fred should maintain a motion toward the north-northeast or northeast accompanied by a gradual increase forward speed owing to a very stable steering pattern between a deep-layer ridge to the east and a broad mid-tropospheric trough to the west. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track and lies near the middle of the tightly packed NHC model guidance suite. Although Fred is weakening, the system is still expected to bring flooding rains to portions of the southeastern and eastern United States during the next couple of days. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Fred. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11 AM ED, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and from western Georgia into the southern Appalachians. By the middle of the week, Fred or its remnants will lift northward and impact the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 32.3N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/1800Z 34.2N 84.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0600Z 37.0N 82.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 18/1800Z 39.6N 80.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Linda Forecast Discussion Number 29
2021-08-17 10:39:00| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 16 2021
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Hurricane Linda Public Advisory Number 29
2021-08-17 10:38:26| Tropical Depression LIDIA
...LINDA BEGINS TO WEAKEN AGAIN... Location: 17.6°N 126.4°W Max sustained: 90 mph Moving: W at 10 mph Min pressure: 975 mb Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 16 2021
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