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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-08-03 22:39:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 032039 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Deep convection in Hilda's central dense overcast has been weakening today, with the low-level center still on the northern side of the cloud mass. Satellite classifications have decreased since the last advisory, and a partial ASCAT pass around 1700 UTC showed maximum winds of about 45 kt. Assuming some undersampling and that the eastern radius-of-maximum winds could have been missed, the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt. A combination of shear, cool water temperatures, and a more stable environment should keep Hilda on a weakening trend throughout the forecast period. Model guidance continues to be in very good agreement, and the new NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous one. Hilda is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday and dissipate as a trough this weekend well east of the Hawaiian Islands. The storm continues moving northwestward, now a little slower at about 6 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over southern California should build westward during the next few days as a mid-latitude trough along 135W moves northward out of the area. This pattern is expected to turn Hilda west-northwestward tomorrow and accelerate the cyclone in that direction as it encounters stronger low- to mid-level flow. Model guidance is a shade faster and to the left of the last cycle, and the new NHC track forecast follows that trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 17.8N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 18.5N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 19.4N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 20.2N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 21.1N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 21.9N 132.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z 22.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 17
2021-08-03 22:38:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 032038 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 ...HILDA STARTING TO SUCCUMB TO COOL WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 125.0W ABOUT 1040 MI...1670 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 125.0 West. Hilda is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This motion is forecast to continue through tonight, with a turn toward the west-northwest expected on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilda is likely to become a tropical depression on Thursday and a remnant low on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2021-08-03 22:38:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 032038 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-08-03 22:37:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 032037 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 125.0W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 125.0W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 124.8W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N 125.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.4N 127.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.2N 128.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 130.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.9N 132.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 125.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Ignacio Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-08-03 22:36:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 032036 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ignacio Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Ignacio has been devoid of deep convection within 75 nmi of the center for the more than 6 hours now due to strong easterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt based on the continued degradation in the convective pattern and a 1536Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass that revealed a patch of 27-kt surface wind vectors south of the center. The small cyclone is expected to meander over water temperatures near 26 deg C for the next 12-24 hours, while the shear is forecast to increase to near 30 kt during that time. Owing to these unfavorable environmental conditions, Ignacio is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by late this afternoon, followed by dissipation on Wednesday. The initial motion estimate is now 090/03 kt. Ignacio is forecast to make a small clockwise loop within weak low-level steering flow until the system dissipates around 36 hours. The new NHC official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly clustered simple- and corrected-consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 20.4N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 20.4N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/1800Z 19.9N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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