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Tropical Storm Ignacio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-08-02 16:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 021432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 1500 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Hurricane Hilda Public Advisory Number 12
2021-08-02 16:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 021432 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 ...HILDA NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 122.6W ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 122.6 West. Hilda is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn to the west on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening should begin by tomorrow and continue through midweek. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-08-02 16:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 220 WTPZ23 KNHC 021431 TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 122.6W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 122.6W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 122.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.0N 123.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.9N 123.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.9N 124.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.9N 126.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.7N 127.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.4N 129.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 21.5N 133.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.5N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 122.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-08-02 10:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 439 WTPZ45 KNHC 020837 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 The depression has not become any better organized overnight. In fact, the earlier cluster of deep convection that was located to the west of the center has weakened with the center becoming farther exposed to the northeast of a new burst of convection that has recently developed. Unfortunately the tropical cyclone was located within the gap of the polar-orbiting ASCAT instrument overnight so there were no scatterometer data to help ascertain the depression's intensity. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB ranged from 30 to 35 kt, and since there has been no overall change in organization, the intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression has a short window of opportunity today in which to become a tropical storm, however increasing shear and cool waters along the forecast track should end that possibility by early tonight. Weakening is expected to begin shortly thereafter as the system moves into aforementioned hostile environmental conditions, and the cyclone is predicted to become a remnant low by late Tuesday, and dissipate on Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus and follows the global model guidance in calling for dissipation in 48-60 h. The depression is moving west-northwestward or 295/9 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged as the cyclone should move west-northwestward along the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge. As the system weakens, it is likely to slow down and turn westward within the low-level flow around Hilda located to its southwest. The NHC track prediction remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, and little modification to the previous advisory was needed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 18.0N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.7N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 19.6N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 20.3N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0600Z 20.5N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-08-02 10:36:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 020836 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 SSMIS microwave data received just after the previous advisory indicate that Hilda's structure may have improved slightly, with a closed mid-level eye noted in the 85-GHz channel. However, the microwave data also showed that the low- and mid-level centers remain offset from each other by about 15 n mi due to continued moderate easterly shear. The initial intensity remains 70 kt, which is a blend of the latest final-T Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB. Hilda has begun to turn to the right and slow down, and the initial motion is west-northwestward (295 degrees) at 7 kt. Although the subtropical ridge remains positioned to the north of Hilda, the hurricane's close proximity to Tropical Depression Ten-E and the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E is expected to cause some binary interaction over the next couple of days, with Hilda likely to slow down further and turn toward the northwest later today and continue on that heading through Wednesday. In fact, the newest track guidance has trended to the northeast during the first 48 hours, and the updated NHC forecast has therefore been shifted a bit to the right during that period. However, it should be noted that the track adjustment is conservative, and does not show a turn quite as sharp as that shown by the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. Low-level ridging should play a more prominent role in about 3 days, causing Hilda to turn back toward the west-northwest and then west by the end of the forecast period. No significant track changes were required during the day 3-5 time period. Moderate east-northeasterly shear is expected to continue for the next 36 hours or so, with Hilda also heading toward cooler waters during that time. Therefore, gradual weakening is expected to commence later today, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to the HCCA and ICON consensus aids for the next day or so. Sub-26 degree Celsius waters are likely to cause quicker weakening from 36 hours onward, and the NHC intensity forecast has been nudged downward during that period. This new forecast is lower than the statistical-dynamical models but not nearly as low as the latest HCCA solution. Hilda is now forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by day 3 and degenerate into a remnant low by day 4, although the HCCA scenario suggests that these transitions could occur as much as a day earlier. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 15.3N 122.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 15.8N 122.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 16.7N 123.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 17.8N 124.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 18.9N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 19.8N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 20.5N 128.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 21.2N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0600Z 21.5N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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