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Hurricane Hilda Public Advisory Number 13
2021-08-02 22:33:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 022033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 ...HILDA HANGING ON AS A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 122.8W ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 122.8 West. Hilda is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn to the west on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Hilda should gradually weaken during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-08-02 22:33:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 022033 TCMEP3 HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.8W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 120SE 105SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.8W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 122.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.5N 123.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.4N 124.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.3N 125.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.2N 126.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.1N 128.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 129.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 122.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Ignacio Public Advisory Number 5
2021-08-02 22:33:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 022033 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ignacio Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 ...IGNACIO EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM... ...WEAKENING FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 114.9W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ignacio was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 114.9 West. Ignacio is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to begin later tonight, and Ignacio is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Ignacio Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-08-02 22:33:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 022033 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 2100 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 114.9W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 114.9W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.4N 117.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.2N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.2N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 114.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Ignacio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-08-02 22:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 022033 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 2100 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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