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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-08-02 16:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 021434 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 The satellite presentation of Hilda hasn't changed much in the past several hours, with a round central dense overcast and perhaps a ragged eye trying to form. The intensity estimates range from 60-77 kt, and since the hurricane's presentation is about the same as the last advisory, the current wind speed will remain 70 kt. This is one of those times that in situ reconnaissance data would be helpful since there has been lots of spread in the intensity estimates for quite some time, and Hilda is at an intensity where it is hard to get more precise measurements. The hurricane has finally turned northwestward and should continue in that general direction for the next couple of days on the southwestern side of the subtropical ridge, with some influence from Ignacio to the northeast. Model guidance is in decent agreement that Hilda will turn back to the west-northwest by midweek and then west under the restrengthened subtropical ridge. While there are still some outlier solutions, the latest consensus guidance is near the previous NHC forecast, so only small changes were made on this advisory. Hilda is maintaining good inner-core structure on the latest microwave data despite northeasterly shear (perhaps because of a fairly moist mid-level environment around the hurricane), so little intensity change is forecast for today. Thereafter, the system should move over cooler waters into a drier environment, which should cause gradual weakening for the next several days. Very little change was made to the NHC intensity forecast, and it is close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids throughout. Remnant-low status is expected by 96 h, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 15.4N 122.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 16.0N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 16.9N 123.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 17.9N 124.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 18.9N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 19.7N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 20.4N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 21.5N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z 21.5N 138.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Ignacio Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-08-02 16:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 021433 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ignacio Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 A large burst of deep convection has developed near the center and over most of the southwestern semicircle of the cyclone. Recent subjective satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON are 37 kt and 39 kt, respectively. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased to 35 kt, making the system the ninth tropical storm of the 2021 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Tropical Storm Ignacio has continued to move west-northwestward, and the initial motion estimate is 295/08 kt. Both the track forecast and synoptic reasoning remain unchanged for this advisory. Ignacio is expected to maintain a west-northwestward motion, wedged between a strong mid-/upper-level ridge to the north and Hurricane Hilda to the southwest throughout the 48-hour forecast period. The new track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus track models. Ignacio is likely near its peak intensity given that northeasterly vertical wind shear of 18-20 kt is expected to keep the strongest convection displaced away from the strongest surface winds that are likely occurring in the northeastern semicircle. By 24 hours or so, Ignacio will be moving over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures and into even stronger wind shear, which should induce steady weakening, with dissipation expected by 60 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 18.3N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.0N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.8N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 20.3N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z 20.7N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-08-02 16:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 021432 PWSEP3 HURRICANE HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 11(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Ignacio Public Advisory Number 4
2021-08-02 16:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 021432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ignacio Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 114.0W ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ignacio was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 114.0 West. Ignacio is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected today. Weakening is forecast to begin tonight or Tuesday morning, and Ignacio is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km), mainly northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Ignacio Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-08-02 16:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 021432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 1500 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 114.0W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 114.0W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 113.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.0N 115.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.8N 116.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.3N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.7N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 114.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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