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Tropical Depression Ignacio Public Advisory Number 7
2021-08-03 10:47:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 030847 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ignacio Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 ...IGNACIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TUESDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 116.3W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ignacio was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 116.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is forecast today, followed by slow northeastward or eastward motion Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ignacio is expected to degenerate into a remnant low Tuesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Ignacio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-08-03 10:47:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 030847 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Ignacio Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-03 10:46:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 283 WTPZ25 KNHC 030846 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 116.3W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 116.3W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.9N 116.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.2N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 116.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-08-03 04:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030236 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 Moderate northeasterly wind shear continues to take a toll on Hilda this evening. The upper-level outflow on the northern and eastern sides of the circulation has a sharp edge in satellite imagery. Recent SSMIS microwave data show the structure of Hilda has changed little since earlier today, with a weakness in the upshear portion of the eyewall and a slight displacement of the low- and mid-level centers. The various objective intensity estimates and subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support holding the initial intensity at 65 kt for this advisory. Hilda is moving northwestward, or 315/6 kt, under the influence of a subtropical ridge to its northeast. This general motion is expected to continue through midweek, and the track guidance remains tightly clustered during this period. As Hilda continues weakening and the ridge builds westward, Hilda is forecast to move west-northwestward and then westward within the low-level flow through the rest of the period. However, a complicating factor is the potential for some interaction with the remnants of TD Nine-E, which now have a high chance of redevelopment during the next couple of days. The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly poleward once again at day 3 and beyond, bringing it closer to the reliable consensus aids TVCE and HCCA and accounting for the aforementioned possibility of some interaction between the two systems. Moderate northeasterly shear will persist for the next day or so, and afterwards the cooler sea-surface temperatures along Hilda's forecast track will offset any reduction in shear over the system. Therefore, weakening is expected during the next several days. The official NHC intensity forecast lies slightly above the multi-model consensus aids in the near-term, but then closely follows IVCN and HCCA once Hilda reaches the cooler waters. The system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 96 h, but this transition could occur soon after 72 h based on some of the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 16.4N 123.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 17.1N 123.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 18.0N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 18.9N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 19.8N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 20.8N 128.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 21.6N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 22.5N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z 22.6N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Hurricane Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-08-03 04:35:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 030235 PWSEP3 HURRICANE HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 2 5( 7) 14(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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