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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-06-29 04:39:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 290239 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Deep convection associated with Enrique has continued to wane this evening, with the cloud tops warming and the center located just to the northwest of the remaining convective activity. The subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB continue to decrease along with the UW/CIMSS objective T-numbers. A blend of these and an earlier SATCON estimate yields an initial wind speed of 50 kt for this advisory. Although the center of Enrique is located over SSTs of around 28C, the storm has been entraining a drier and more stable air mass located just to its west, which has led to the loss of organization. Bursts of deep convection will likely continue during the next day or so while the storm moves northwestward near a sharp SST gradient. However, steady weakening is anticipated during Enrique's approach to the southern portion of the Baja peninsula. Land interaction and decreasing SSTs should cause the system to degenerate into a remnant low in a couple of days, and dissipate within 72 hours. Enrique is moving northwestward or 320/5 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from before. A low- to mid-level ridge to the northeast of the storm should steer Enrique northwestward over the next couple of days. The track guidance has shifted back to the east this cycle and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction, but it lies a little to the west of the latest multi-model consensus aids. The guidance has again trended faster and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple days. The rainfall over the mainland of Mexico continue to pose a threat of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible over portions of the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula beginning Tuesday night and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two, and will spread northward along portions of the coast of southern Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 21.1N 107.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 21.7N 108.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 22.6N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 23.6N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 24.5N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 01/1200Z 25.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 16
2021-06-29 04:39:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 290239 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 107.4W ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 107.4 West. Enrique is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique is expected to move near or over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula Tuesday night or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area over of the Baja California Peninsula beginning Tuesday night. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco in western Mexico. These amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. As Enrique approaches the Baja Peninsula, total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible through Thursday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. These swells will spread northwestward along portions of the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula and the coast of the southern part of the Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2021-06-29 04:39:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 290239 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 10(11) 10(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 11(12) 12(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-06-29 04:38:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 290238 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 107.4W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 107.4W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.7N 108.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.6N 108.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.6N 109.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.5N 111.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 107.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 29/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Danny Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-06-29 04:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 290232 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Danny Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 1100 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Danny made landfall just north of Hilton Head on Pritchards Island, South Carolina, around 2330 UTC with maximum winds of about 35 kt. Since then, the storm moved inland across extreme southern South Carolina and is now located over east-central Georgia. Surface observations and Doppler radar data indicate that Danny has weakened, and the cyclone has now been downgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression. Heavy rains associated with the depression are spreading westward across central Georgia. The weakening cyclone is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. This general motion is expected to continue overnight and Tuesday taking Danny, or its remnants, across Georgia and northern Alabama. As the system continues its trek inland, additional weakening is forecast, and Danny will likely dissipate by late Tuesday. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolina and Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeast Alabama. Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 32.6N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/1200Z 33.3N 83.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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