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Tropical Depression Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2021-06-30 16:38:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 301438 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LORETO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Enrique Public Advisory Number 22
2021-06-30 16:38:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 301438 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Enrique Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 ...ENRIQUE WEAKENS INTO A DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 110.0W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF LA PAZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Enrique was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 110.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn to the west-northwest is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique will move over Baja California Sur tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next day or so, and Enrique is forecast to dissipate on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Enrique is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect portions of the western coast of Mexico and the coast of Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Depression Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 22
2021-06-30 16:37:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 301437 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 110.0W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 110.0W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 109.8W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.0N 110.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.4N 111.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 110.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-06-30 10:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 843 WTPZ45 KNHC 300835 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Enrique is producing a small area of deep convection to the south of the estimated center. This convective area has expanded a bit over the past few hours. On this basis, the cyclone is maintained as a 35-kt tropical storm for this advisory which is a little above the most recent subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Enrique should weaken to a tropical depression today as it interacts with the land mass of the southern Baja California Peninsula. The official intensity forecast is on the high side of the objective guidance, and similar to the previous NHC prediction. Enrique should become a remnant low over the Baja peninsula and dissipate in 36-48 hours if not sooner, if the global models are correct. Although the center is not easy to track on infrared imagery, my best estimate of initial motion is northwestward, or 315/8 kt. This is not inconsistent with imagery from the Cabo San Lucas radar provided by the Meteorological Service of Mexico. A weak ridge to the northeast and north of the cyclone should result in a northwestward to west-northwestward track until dissipation. The official track forecast is on top of the latest HFIP corrected consensus solution. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across portions of northwestern Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple days, which will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 24.2N 109.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 24.8N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 25.3N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 01/1800Z 25.8N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 21
2021-06-30 10:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 587 WTPZ35 KNHC 300834 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 ...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 109.6W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF LA PAZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 109.6 West. Enrique is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a turn to the west-northwest is expected later today. On the forecast track, Enrique will move over the southern Baja California Peninsula tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Enrique is forecast to weaken into a tropical depression later today and dissipate on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Outer rainbands from Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches across Sinaloa, western Durango, and southern Chihuahua in western Mexico and 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur. These rainfall totals may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, as well as portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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