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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-06-29 10:46:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 290846 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Enrique has lost most of its associated deep convection, likely due to the entrainment of drier and more stable air. Upwelling of cooler waters beneath the slow-moving circulation may also be a contributing factor. Based on data from a couple of earlier scatterometer overpasses, the intensity was reduced to 45 kt. Given the dearth of convection, this may be a generous estimate for the current intensity of the storm. Since the thermodynamic environment is not expected to become any more conducive, weakening is forecast. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the model consensus. It should be noted that Enrique could weaken more rapidly than expected if significant deep convection does not redevelop within the circulation soon. Therefore, the intensity forecast for this system is highly uncertain. The center has become very difficult to locate and the fixes have considerable spread, making the initial position and motion estimates quite uncertain. Based heavily on continuity, the initial motion estimate is a continued northwestward track, or 325/5 kt. The flow to the west of a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico should steer Enrique generally northwestward for the next couple of days, taking the system near or over the southern Baja California Peninsula. Given the uncertainty as to whether Enrique will maintain tropical storm intensity by the time it moves near or over southern Baja, it is decided to continue with a Tropical Storm Watch for that area, and not upgrade it to a warning at this time. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple days. The additional rainfall over the mainland of Mexico will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible over portions of the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two, and will spread northward along portions of the coast of southern Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 21.6N 107.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 22.5N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 23.5N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 24.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 25.2N 111.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 01/1800Z 25.5N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2021-06-29 10:46:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 290846 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0900 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 12(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SAN JOSE CABO 34 4 18(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 17
2021-06-29 10:46:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 290846 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 ...ENRIQUE LIKELY TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 107.6W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 107.6 West. Enrique is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique is expected to move near or over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula tonight or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area over of the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, The eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco in western Mexico. Combined with the rain that has already fallen, these additional amounts may trigger new flash flooding and mudslides. As Enrique approaches the Baja Peninsula, total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible through Thursday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. These swells will spread northwestward along portions of the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula and the coast of the southern part of the Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-06-29 10:45:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 290845 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0900 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 107.6W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 107.6W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 107.5W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.5N 108.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.5N 109.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.2N 111.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.5N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 107.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 29/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 16A
2021-06-29 07:39:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 290539 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1200 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 ...ENRIQUE WEAKENING IT MOVES TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 107.4W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 107.4 West. Enrique is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion is expected continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique is expected to move near or over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula tonight or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area over of the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco in western Mexico. These amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. As Enrique approaches the Baja Peninsula, total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible through Thursday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. These swells will spread northwestward along portions of the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula and the coast of the southern part of the Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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