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Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 18A
2021-06-29 19:48:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 291748 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1200 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 ...POORLY-ORGANIZED ENRIQUE BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 108.0W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 108.0 West. Enrique is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique is expected to move near or over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula tonight or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Enrique is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, mainly in the eastern semicircle. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area over southern portions of the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight. RAINFALL: Enrique is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across Sinola, western Durango and southern Chihuahua in western Mexico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible across the southern portions of Baja California Sur. Combined with the rain that had already fallen, these additional amounts may trigger new flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, as well as portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-06-29 16:55:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 291455 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Enrique remains devoid of any deep convection near its center this morning. The system appears to have entrained drier, more stable air into its core, which has suppressed all thunderstorm activity. Overnight scatterometer data revealed winds to 40 kt in the eastern semicircle, but the system has likely weakened since then given its lack of convection. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt with this advisory, which is consistent with an objective SATCON estimate and TAFB subjective Dvorak classification. Passive microwave data and proxy visible satellite imagery show that the low-level center of Enrique is exposed and slightly northeast of previous estimates. The estimated initial motion is an uncertain 335/7 kt. The system is expected to gradually turn toward the northwest and approach the southern Baja California peninsula tonight into Wednesday. The official NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly right-of-track from the previous advisory to account for the center relocation, and generally follows the multi-model consensus. Enrique remains in an environment with fairly low oceanic heat content and some drier mid-level air, and all the reliable intensity models suggest the cyclone will continue weakening. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast shows Enrique becoming a tropical depression by tomorrow. However, if the system fails to generate any organized convection near its center soon, it could degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low later today or tonight. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple of days. The additional rainfall over the mainland of Mexico will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible over southern portions of the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 22.5N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 23.3N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 24.2N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 25.1N 110.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 01/1200Z 25.8N 111.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Storm Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2021-06-29 16:54:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 291454 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN
Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 18
2021-06-29 16:53:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 291453 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 ...ENRIQUE CONTINUES WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 107.6W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 107.6 West. Enrique is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique is expected to move near or over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula tonight or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Enrique is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, mainly in the eastern semicircle. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area over southern portions of the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight. RAINFALL: Enrique is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across Sinola, western Durango and southern Chihuahua in western Mexico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible across the southern portions of Baja California Sur. Combined with the rain that had already fallen, these additional amounts may trigger new flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-06-29 16:51:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 291451 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 107.6W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 107.6W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 107.5W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.3N 108.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.2N 109.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.1N 110.9W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.8N 111.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 107.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 29/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN
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