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Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 17A
2021-06-29 13:44:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 291144 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 600 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 ...POORLY-ORGANIZED ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 107.7W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 107.7 West. Enrique is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique is expected to move near or over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula tonight or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area over of the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco in western Mexico. Combined with the rain that has already fallen, these additional amounts may trigger new flash flooding and mudslides. As Enrique approaches the Baja Peninsula, total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible through Thursday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. These swells will spread northwestward along portions of the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula and the coast of the southern part of the Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Remnants of Danny Public Advisory Number 4
2021-06-29 10:47:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 290847 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Remnants Of Danny Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 500 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 ...DANNY DISSIPATES INLAND OVER GEORGIA... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 83.0W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF ATLANTA GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1019 MB...30.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Danny were located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 83.0 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today as the remnants cross northern Georgia and Alabama. Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. The winds associated with the remnants of Danny are forecast to decrease over the next day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1019 mb (30.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Danny can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Danny's remnants will produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts across portions of western and northern Georgia into central and northern Alabama through Tuesday afternoon. Widespread flooding impacts are not expected, however local flooding impacts, especially flash urban flooding, cannot be ruled out. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information specific to your area, please refer to products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Remnants of Danny Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-06-29 10:47:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 290847 TCDAT4 Remnants Of Danny Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 500 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Surface observations indicate that the low-level circulation associated with Danny is no longer well-defined. Therefore, Danny is no longer classifiable as a tropical cyclone. The observations also indicated that the maximum winds associated with these remnants have decreased to 20 kt or less, while surface pressures have risen to 1019 mb. The remnants of Danny are moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt and this general motion is expected to continue through today, with locally heavy rainfall spreading across portions of northern Georgia and Alabama. This is the last NHC advisory on Danny. For additional information specific to your area, please refer to products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from the remnants of Danny may produce isolated flash flooding, especially in urban areas, across western and northern Georgia into central and northern Alabama today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 33.0N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH 12H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Remnants of Danny Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-06-29 10:47:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 290847 PWSAT4 REMNANTS OF DANNY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042021 0900 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF DANNY WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS...25 MPH...35 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Remnants of Danny Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-06-29 10:46:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 290846 TCMAT4 REMNANTS OF DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042021 0900 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 83.0W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1019 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 83.0W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 82.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 83.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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