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Tropical Depression Danny Public Advisory Number 3
2021-06-29 04:32:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 290232 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Danny Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 1100 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...DANNY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 81.5W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM W OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Danny was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 81.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Danny will move further inland across east-central and northern Georgia tonight and Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Danny is expected to dissipate on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Danny can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Danny may produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts in coastal regions of Georgia and southern South Carolina tonight. This region has been dry, limiting potential widespread flooding impacts, however, local flooding impacts, especially in urban areas along the southern South Carolina and Georgia coast, cannot be ruled out at this time. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Danny Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-06-29 04:32:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 290232 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042021 0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Danny Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-06-29 04:31:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 290231 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042021 0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 81.5W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 81.5W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 80.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 33.3N 83.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 81.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 15A
2021-06-29 01:58:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 282358 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 600 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...ENRIQUE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 107.3W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings for the coast of southwest Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 107.3 West. Enrique is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected continue for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique will continue to move away from the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight. Enrique is then expected to move near or over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next few days, but Enrique could still be a tropical storm as it approaches the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area over the southeast portion of the Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco in western Mexico. These amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Danny Public Advisory Number 2A
2021-06-29 01:49:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 282349 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Danny Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 800 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...DANNY MAKES LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF HILTON HEAD ON PRITCHARDS ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 80.5W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM ESE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 80.5 West. Danny is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Danny will move inland across southern South Carolina and east-central Georgia tonight and early Tuesday morning. Data from NOAA Doppler radars, earlier reconnaissance aircraft, and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast, and Danny is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later tonight and dissipate by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. A wind gust of 34 mph (55 k/h) was recently reported at Beaufort Airport in South Carolina. The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is estimated to be 1010 mb (29.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Danny can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning area during the next few hours. RAINFALL: Danny could produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts along the immediate coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina. This region has been dry, limiting potential widespread flooding impacts, however, local flooding impacts, especially in urban areas along the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts, cannot be ruled out at this time. Farther inland, 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible across Upstate South Carolina, the Piedmont of Georgia, and into northeastern Alabama. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Royal Sound, SC to South Santee River, SC...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible this evening along the South Carolina coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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