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Subtropical Storm Teresa Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-09-25 10:35:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 250835 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 65.5W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 65.5W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 65.5W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 35.4N 65.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 37.2N 64.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 65.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Subtropical Storm Teresa Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-09-25 10:34:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 250834 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Teresa Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 500 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 Teresa is poorly organized and it likely won't be a subtropical cyclone for much longer. The cloud pattern consists of a swirl of low-level clouds and a band of showers and thunderstorms that is located more than 250 n mi northeast of the center. This patch of convection has been detaching from the low-level circulation and it appears to be more involved with an upper-level low to the east of Teresa. ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C caught the circulation several hours ago, and showed winds of 25-30 kt near it. However, that instrument did not sample the area of convection well northeast of the center, where the winds could be a little stronger. Given the degraded structure of the system, the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly generous 35 kt. Now that the upper-level low has pulled away from the subtropical storm, west-southwesterly shear is increasing across the circulation and that should prevent convective organization and any opportunity for strengthening. Due to the strong shear and dry air entrainment, Teresa is likely to become a remnant low later today or tonight and dissipate on Sunday. Teresa is moving slowly west-northwestward at 5 kt. A turn to the north is expected later today, followed by a northeast motion as the cyclone moves in the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 34.5N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 35.4N 65.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 37.2N 64.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Subtropical Storm Teresa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-09-25 10:34:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 250834 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 11
2021-09-25 10:32:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 090 WTNT33 KNHC 250832 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 ...SAM ALMOST A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 46.7W ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 46.7 West. Sam is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower motion to the west-northwest is expected over the weekend, followed by a turn to the northwest on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Sam is expected to become a major hurricane later today. Sam is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-09-25 10:32:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 089 WTNT23 KNHC 250832 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 46.7W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 46.7W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 46.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.1N 48.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.5N 49.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.0N 50.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.7N 51.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.4N 52.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.3N 53.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 18.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.1N 59.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 46.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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