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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-09-25 22:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 252038 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 48.5W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 48.5W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 48.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.7N 49.4W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.3N 50.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.9N 51.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.7N 52.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.6N 53.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.4N 55.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 19.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 22.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 48.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Subtropical Depression Teresa Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-09-25 16:45:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 897 WTNT44 KNHC 251445 TCDAT4 Subtropical Depression Teresa Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 Teresa has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours now. The cloud pattern consists of a swirl of low-level clouds and a band of showers and thunderstorms located about 250 n mi north of the center. This patch of convection is detached from the low-level circulation, and it appears to be more involved with an upper-level trough to the northeast of Teresa. A 1210 UTC ASCAT-A pass shows that the winds within that convection have decreased, with several vectors in the 25 to 30 kt range. Based on that data, the intensity is lowered to 30 kt, making Teresa a subtropical depression. Teresa is unlikely to redevelop any convection near its center as strong west-southwesterly wind shear continues over the cyclone. This will prevent any opportunity for strengthening. Teresa is expected to become a remnant low later today or this evening and dissipate on Sunday. The global models are in good agreement with this scenario. Teresa has moved little during the past 12 hours, so a stationary motion is currently indicated for this advisory. However, a motion toward the northeast should begin within the next few hours and continue through dissipation as the cyclone moves in the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough. The track forecast was adjusted a little to the east of the previous advisory, and is in agreement with the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 34.3N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 35.4N 64.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 37.2N 62.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Beven
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Subtropical Depression Teresa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-09-25 16:44:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 251444 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TERESA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 1500 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TERESA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BEVEN
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Subtropical Depression Teresa Public Advisory Number 4
2021-09-25 16:44:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 547 WTNT34 KNHC 251444 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Depression Teresa Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021 ...TERESA WEAKENS TO A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.3N 65.0W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Teresa was located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 65.0 West. Teresa is nearly stationary. A motion toward the northeast is expected to begin this afternoon and continue through Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Teresa is expected to become a remnant low by this evening and dissipate on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Beven
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Subtropical Depression Teresa Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-09-25 16:44:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 546 WTNT24 KNHC 251444 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TERESA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 1500 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 65.0W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 65.0W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 65.2W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 35.4N 64.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 37.2N 62.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 65.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BEVEN
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