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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-11-14 03:40:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 140240 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0300 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA...HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THAT AREA ON SATURDAY. INTERESTS IN SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 74.2W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 74.2W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 74.1W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.5N 74.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.7N 76.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.0N 77.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.3N 79.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.5N 81.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.7N 82.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 14.8N 85.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 14.3N 88.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 74.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 3
2020-11-14 03:40:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 140240 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 ...IOTA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 74.2W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Nicaragua, Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. A Hurricane Watch could be required for a portion of that area on Saturday. Interests in San Andres and Providencia should also monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 74.2 West. Iota is moving toward the south-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue overnight. A westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected to begin by late Saturday and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is likely over the weekend, and the system is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Across Honduras and northern Nicaragua: 8 to 16 inches or 200 to 400 mm, with isolated maximum totals of 20 inches or 500 mm. Across Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia, southern Nicaragua, Belize, Guatemala, and El Salvador: 3 to 6 inches or 75 to 150 mm, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches or 250 mm. This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Across Jamaica and southern Haiti: 1 to 3 inches or 25 to 75 mm. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-11-14 03:40:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 140240 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0300 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 11(24) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 24(35) 11(46) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 7(24) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 18(53) 3(56) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) 3(30) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 2(15) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 3(18) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 22(29) 6(35) 1(36) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) X(15) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) LIMON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) COLON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-11-14 03:36:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 140236 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0300 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 17
2020-11-14 03:35:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 140235 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 ...THETA BEGINS WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 21.6W ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 21.6 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h). An eastward or east-southeastward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday, followed by a sharp northward turn Sunday night into early next week. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Theta is expected to become a remnant low by late Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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