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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-11-14 03:34:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 140234 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0300 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 21.6W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 120SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 420SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 21.6W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 22.1W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.8N 20.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.6N 18.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.7N 17.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.3N 17.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 35.9N 16.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 21.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-11-13 21:44:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 132044 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 Banding features over the eastern and southeastern portions of the cyclone's circulation have increased since this morning, and the overall organization of the system continues to quickly improve. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that there was a fairly large area of light winds near the center, and that the low-level center was displaced to the northwest of the mid-level center seen in visible satellite imagery. Since the system is still in its formative stage, the low-level center may reform closer to the mid-level feature, and the advisory position is a compromise between the low- and mid-level circulations. The earlier ASCAT data indicated peak winds of around 30 kt with several higher rain-inflated vectors. Based on the continued increase in organization, and Dvorak T-numbers of T2.5 from both TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt. Iota becomes the 30th named storm of the recording-breaking 2020 hurricane season. The environment ahead of Iota appears to be quite conducive for intensification. The system will be moving over warm waters, in a moist atmosphere, and within an area of very low vertical wind shear. As a result, steady to rapid strengthening appears likely over the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Iota to reach hurricane status within 36 h, and now calls for the system to be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. The NHC intensity foreast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model, and the 70-kt increase in intensity over the next 72 hours is supported by the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index that shows a nearly 60 percent chance of a 65 kt increase in intensity during that time period. The tropical storm has not moved very much today, and the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 255/3 kt. A strong mid-level ridge that extends across Florida and the western Atlantic is forecast to slide eastward over the next few days causing the cyclone to move faster toward the west or west-northwestward. The track guidance has come into a bit better agreement this afternoon, with only the HWRF showing a track farther north over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The latest consensus aids were very close to the previous official forecast, and no significant adjustments to the earlier track forecast were required. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Sunday night or early Monday. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area tonight or early Saturday. 2. Through Wednesday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Haiti, Jamaica and Central America. Flooding and landslides from heavy rainfall could be significant across Central America given recovery efforts underway after Hurricane Eta. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 13.8N 74.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 13.7N 75.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 13.7N 76.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 13.9N 77.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 14.2N 79.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 14.6N 81.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 15.0N 82.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 15.2N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/1800Z 14.7N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 2
2020-11-13 21:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 132044 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM IOTA.. ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 74.3W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. A Hurricane Watch may be required for a portion of that area tonight or early Saturday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 74.3 West. Iota is moving toward the west-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early Saturday. A westward to west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected to begin by late Saturday and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras late Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is likely over the weekend, and the system is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Through Wednesday morning, Iota is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with local 12 inch totals, across portions of northern Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica. Across Jamaica and southern Haiti, 2 to 4 inches are expected, with local amounts up to 6 inches. Across remaining sections of Central America, the system has the potential to produce 20 to 30 inches of rain with a focus across northern Nicaragua and Honduras. This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will begin affecting portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-11-13 21:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 132044 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 13(31) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 13(27) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 28(42) 11(53) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 8(32) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 7(21) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 15(46) 3(49) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 11(24) 2(26) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 1(13) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 20(27) 5(32) 1(33) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) 1(12) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LIMON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) COLON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-11-13 21:43:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 132043 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THAT AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 74.3W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 74.3W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 74.2W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.7N 75.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.7N 76.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.9N 77.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.2N 79.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.6N 81.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.0N 82.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 15.2N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 14.7N 88.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 74.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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