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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-11-14 09:36:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 806 WTNT45 KNHC 140836 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 Nearly all of the deep convection associated with Theta has dissipated since the previous advisory, with only cold, high cirrus clouds remaining in the northeastern quadrant. A late-arriving 13/2255Z partial ASCAT-C pass indicated a few 35-kt wind vectors were present in the southeastern quadrant, so the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt for this advisory, which is consistent the latest TAFB current intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt. The initial motion estimate is due east, or 090/08 kt. Theta is expected to move eastward along the northern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 24 hours or so, a motion that will also be accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed. By 36 hours, a much weaker and more vertically shallow Theta is forecast to turn sharply northward ahead of a frontal system. In the 48-72 hour period, the weakening cyclone expected to accelerate northeastward ahead of the front, passing to the north of the Canary Islands this weekend. Theta is forecast to dissipate by 96 hours near the Madeira Island. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to the consensus model TVCN. Strong shear in excess of 35 kt currently affecting Theta is forecast to steadily increase to more than 40 kt by 12 h and beyond. In addition, entrainment of very dry mid-level air should combine with the increasing shear and prevent the reformation of persistent organized deep convection near the center. Although the global models show that some marginal instability is expected to linger through the forecast period, only intermittent small bursts of modest convection away from the center could develop. However, the general trend in the model guidance calls for Theta to slowly spin down, and the official intensity forecast follows that scenario, calling for the cyclone to weaken to a remnant low later today, then becoming extratropical before dissipating in 3-4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 32.0N 20.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 31.8N 19.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/0600Z 31.8N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 15/1800Z 32.2N 17.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/0600Z 33.2N 17.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 16/1800Z 34.9N 16.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/0600Z 37.2N 15.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 18
2020-11-14 09:36:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 140836 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 ...THETA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 20.8W ABOUT 540 MI...875 KM SE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 20.8 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. A sharp northward turn is forecast to occur Sunday night, with that motion continuing into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Theta is expected to become a remnant low by later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km), mainly southeast through southwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2020-11-14 09:36:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 140836 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-11-14 09:35:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 140835 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 20.8W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 330SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 20.8W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 21.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.8N 19.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.8N 18.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.2N 17.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 33.2N 17.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.9N 16.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 37.2N 15.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 20.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-11-14 03:40:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140240 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 Satellite images show that Iota has changed little during the past several hours. Deep convection is organized in fragmented bands around the center, except in the northwestern quadrant where there is a dry slot. All of the satellite intensity estimates are around 35 kt, and therefore, the initial intensity is held at that value. Iota has been drifting to the south-southwest during the past several hours, however, the steering currents are expected to become more pronounced soon. A strong and sprawling mid-level ridge currently centered over the Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward and build to the north of the tropical cyclone. Since this ridging is expected to remain well established to the north of Iota during the next several days, a general westward motion is expected through the forecast period. The NHC track forecast takes the core of Iota to the Nicaragua and Honduras coasts in about 3 days. However, conditions are expected to deteriorate along that part of the coast before the center arrives. The latest models are in fairly good agreement, except for the HWRF which is a northern outlier, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast is a little slower than the previous one. An upper-level trough to the west of Iota is expected to move west and dissipate on Saturday. This should leave the storm in favorable conditions of 29-30 C waters, and in an air mass of low wind shear and high moisture this weekend and early next week. These conditions support steady to possibly rapid intensification until Iota makes landfall. The main question is how strong will Iota become before it crosses the coast. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 55 percent chance of Iota strengthening 65 kt or more before it makes landfall, which is about 11 times the climatological mean. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and shows Iota strengthening to a major hurricane in about 60 hours. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area on Saturday. 2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta's recent effects there. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 13.6N 74.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 13.5N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 13.7N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 14.0N 77.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 14.3N 79.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 14.5N 81.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 14.7N 82.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 14.8N 85.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/0000Z 14.3N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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