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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 21
2020-11-15 03:34:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 150234 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 ...THETA IS STILL A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 18.7W ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 18.7 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). A gradual turn to the northeast is expected on Sunday, and Theta is forecast to accelerate northward or north-northeastward on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Theta is forecast to become a remnant low by Sunday night and dissipate early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-11-15 03:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 150233 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0300 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 18.7W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 210SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 18.7W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 18.9W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.9N 18.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.6N 17.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.2N 17.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.7N 15.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 18.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-11-15 03:32:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150232 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Iota continues to strengthen. Deep convection has been increasing in coverage and intensity near the center, and microwave images indicate that the inner core is becoming better defined. The Dvorak classifications at 00Z supported an intensity of 55 kt, and since the thunderstorms continue to organize, the initial wind speed is set a little higher to 60 kt. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Iota overnight. Iota has slowed a little and has now turned westward, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 270/4 kt. A ridge over Florida and the western Atlantic is expected to remain to the north of Iota. This high pressure system, and another ridge over Mexico and the western Gulf, should steer the storm westward to west-northwestward during the next couple of days and then westward to west-southwestward after that. This motion should take the core of Iota to the coast of Nicaragua Monday night. The models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. The atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear quite favorable for Iota to continue strengthening until it reaches the coast in a little more than 2 days. Since the storm appears to be developing an inner core, rapid strengthening during the next couple of days seems likely. All of the intensity models show a significant amount of strengthening before landfall, and are higher than the previous cycle. Based on the latest guidance and favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast is above the previous one and shows Iota becoming a hurricane soon and a major hurricane in 36 hours. After Iota moves inland, rapid weakening is forecast as the cyclone moves over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and southern Honduras. The NHC forecast lies close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to intensify and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for portions of the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras, and hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected there beginning Monday. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia beginning late Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible by Sunday evening on San Andres. 3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 12.7N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 12.9N 77.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 13.3N 79.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 13.7N 81.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 14.0N 82.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 14.1N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0000Z 14.0N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0000Z 13.6N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 6A
2020-11-15 00:31:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 142331 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 700 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 ...IOTA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 76.9W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 76.9 West. Iota is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A westward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to begin very soon and continue through Monday night. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the southwest Caribbean Sea tonight and Sunday, pass near or over Providencia island on Monday and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras Monday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Iota is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches Central America. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador, southern Nicaragua and southern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm). Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of Providencia by late Sunday night with tropical storm conditions expected beginning Sunday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in Nicaragua and Honduras by late Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres late Sunday or Sunday night with hurricane conditions possible there Sunday night or early Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-11-14 22:11:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 142110 CCA TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 6...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Corrected the numbering of the Key Messages and a typo in first paragraph Deep convection has re-developed closer to the low-level center of Iota during the afternoon, and there has been an increase in banding over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has flown an unusually long mission from its base in Biloxi, Mississippi, indicate that the increase in organization has resulted in strengthening. The plane measured peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 55 kt, and SFMR winds of 46 kt. Those were the basis for the increase in wind speed on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. Given the continued increase in organization, the initial intensity has been set at 50 kt for this advisory. The aircraft reported that the minimum pressure had fallen to around 995 mb during its final pass through the center. The aircraft data indicate that Iota has not developed a tight inner core yet, but with the increase in convection closer to the center, and with the storm moving away from the coast of northwestern Colombia, it is likely Iota will begin to strengthen at a faster rate by Sunday. The upper-level wind pattern is forecast to become quite favorable while the storm traverses SSTs of around 29C. These conditions are likely to result in steady to rapid strengthening over the next couple of days and the NHC intensity forecast again predicts that Iota will be at or near major hurricane strength when it nears the coast of Central America. The SHIPS model is explicitly forecasting rapid intensification (a 30-kt increase in wind speed) over each of the next 24 h periods, and the NHC intensity forecast is quite similar, and is also in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus aid. Satellite imagery and the aircraft fixes show that Iota has continued to move west-southwestward today. A mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida should build eastward over the western Atlantic during the next day or two. This should allow Iota to move westward to west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed, with this motion bringing the storm near the coast of northeastern Nicaragua or Honduras by late Monday. After landfall, a west-southwestward motion is expected to take the center of Iota inland over Central America. The track guidance has again shifted southward, partially due to the more southward initial position once again. This has resulted in another southward shift in the NHC track forecast, which is again near the TVCA multi-model consensus. The latest track forecast necessitates the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for Providencia island, and Hurricane Watches were issued earlier this afternoon for portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. In addition to the wind and storm surge threats, Iota is likely to bring heavy rainfall and flooding to portions of Central America that are still recovering from Hurricane Eta's impacts. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to intensify and be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of damaging wind and a dangerous storm surge across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for a portion of that area. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia beginning late Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible by Sunday evening on San Andres. 3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 12.6N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 12.7N 77.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 13.0N 78.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 13.4N 80.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 13.8N 82.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 14.0N 83.5W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/1800Z 14.0N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1800Z 13.6N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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