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Tropical Storm Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-11-14 21:54:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 142054 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 2100 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 8(31) X(31) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 33(41) 33(74) 3(77) X(77) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 30(47) 3(50) X(50) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 1(29) X(29) BLUEFIELDS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 15(24) 3(27) X(27) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN ANDRES 34 2 9(11) 29(40) 22(62) 6(68) 1(69) X(69) SAN ANDRES 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 18(29) 4(33) 1(34) X(34) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) LIMON 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) COLON 34 1 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KINGSTON 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 6
2020-11-14 21:54:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 142054 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 ...IOTA STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 76.5W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Colombia has issued a Hurricane Warning for the island of Providencia, and a Hurricane Watch for the island of San Andres. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 76.5 West. Iota is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A westward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to begin very soon and continue through Monday night. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the southwest Caribbean Sea tonight and Sunday, pass near or over Providencia island on Monday and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras Monday afternoon or evening. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Iota is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches Central America. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador, southern Nicaragua and southern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm). Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) Wind: Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of Providencia by late Sunday night with tropical storm conditions expected beginning Sunday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras by late Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres late Sunday or Sunday night with hurricane conditions possible Sunday night or early Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-11-14 21:54:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 142054 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 2100 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF SAN ANDRES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVIDENCIA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER * SAN ANDRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 76.5W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 76.5W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 76.4W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 12.7N 77.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.0N 78.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.4N 80.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.8N 82.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.0N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.0N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 13.6N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 76.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 15/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-11-14 21:38:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 890 WTNT45 KNHC 142038 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 A persistent band of deep convection to the southeast of Theta's center continues to keep it classifiable as a tropical cyclone, with the edge of the convection at one point today reaching within 60 n mi of the center of the cyclone. Over the past couple of hours this convection has become farther displaced from Theta's center, as the system gets blasted by over 40 kt of northerly shear. Since the cyclone's appearance has changed little today, the initial intensity is being held at 35 kt based off data from an ASCAT-A overpass this morning. Very strong shear and dry air entrainment should cause the deep convection to weaken and become even farther displaced from the center tonight, with Theta anticipated to degenerate into a remnant low by 12 h. The cyclone should also weaken under this regime, and open into a trough by 72 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the intensity guidance. Theta continues moving just south of due east, but now at a slower pace of around 5 kt. A mid-level ridge located to the south of Theta is weakening, which will result in a continued slow east-southeastward motion through tonight. As Theta becomes a shallow system on Sunday, the low-level flow is forecast to become southwesterly, and this flow is expected to increase on Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. This will cause Theta to turn to the northeast by late Sunday and accelerate until it dissipates in a few days. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the track consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 31.7N 19.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 31.7N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/1800Z 32.1N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0600Z 33.2N 17.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1800Z 35.1N 16.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0600Z 38.1N 14.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-11-14 21:37:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 142036 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 2100 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 19.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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