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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 20
2020-11-14 21:35:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 142035 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020 ...THETA HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 19.2W ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 19.2 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through at least tonight. A turn to the northeast is forecast to occur by late Sunday, and Theta is expected to accelerate to the northeast on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected over the next few days, and Theta is forecast to become a remnant low by Sunday morning, and dissipate early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-11-14 21:34:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 142034 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 2100 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 19.2W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 240SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 19.2W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 19.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.7N 18.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.1N 17.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 33.2N 17.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 35.1N 16.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 38.1N 14.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 19.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 5A
2020-11-14 18:58:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 141758 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 100 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS IOTA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PROVIDENCIA ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS... SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 76.4W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Nicaragua has issued a Hurricane Watch from Sandy Bay Sirpi northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. The government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Watch from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Patuca. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla. The government of Colombia has issued a Hurricane Watch for the island of Providencia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * Providencia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * Providencia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 76.4 West. Iota is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A westward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the southwest Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras on Monday. Preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is likely to begin tonight or Sunday, and Iota is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches Central America. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador, southern Nicaragua and southern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm). Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) Wind: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Warning area by late Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the islands of San Andres and Providencia late Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible on Providencia by Sunday night or early Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-11-14 15:57:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 690 WTNT41 KNHC 141457 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Recent microwave satellite imagery and early morning visible pictures show that Iota remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the center located near the southwestern edge of the main convective mass. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt and is based on the earlier ASCAT data and recent satellite estimates. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Iota early this afternoon. Somewhat surprisingly Iota has not strengthened much since yesterday, which appears to be the result of some unexpected shear and its close proximity to the northwest coast of Colombia. The global models predict that the shear will relax soon, and that the system will be in quite favorable conditions for strengthening. The NHC forecast again calls for steady to rapid strengthening in the next 12-60 h once the storm organizes enough to take advantage of the expected favorable conditions. The updated NHC intensity is similar to the previous forecast and shows Iota at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of Central America. Although the center of Iota was relocated to the south and west of the earlier estimates, the long-term initial motion estimate is 255/4 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. A mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to build eastward to the north of Iota during the next day or two, and this feature should cause the cyclone to move westward to west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the next few days. This should bring the center near the coast of northeastern Nicaragua or Honduras in 2 to 3 days. After landfall, a west-southwestward motion is expected with Iota moving inland over Central America. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward, especially in the first 24 to 36 hours due to the more southward initial position. The NHC track lies close to the TVCA multi-model consensus, which is between the lastest global model interpolated trackers and the model fields. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area later today. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the islands of San Andres and Providencia. 2. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 12.7N 76.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 12.9N 76.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 13.4N 78.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 13.9N 80.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 14.2N 81.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 14.4N 83.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 14.5N 84.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1200Z 14.3N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/1200Z 13.5N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-11-14 15:57:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 707 FONT11 KNHC 141457 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 6(22) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 12(34) 4(38) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 3(19) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 39(55) 7(62) 2(64) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 4(32) 1(33) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) 1(15) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) 1(17) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 11(35) 2(37) X(37) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) LIMON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) COLON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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