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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-11-14 15:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 141456 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-11-14 09:39:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140839 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Satellite imagery and scatterometer data received since the last advisory indicate that Iota is a bit disorganized. The deep convection is currently not concentrated near the center, and the scatterometer wind data showed an elongated circulation with a trough extending west-southwestward from the center. The scatterometer data also showed maximum winds of 30-35 kt in the northeastern quadrant, and based on this, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Iota at around 18Z. Iota continues to move south of west with the initial motion of 245/4 kt. A mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico should build eastward to the north of Iota during the next day or two, and this feature should cause the cyclone to move westward at a somewhat faster forward speed through 72 h. This motion is expected to bring the center near or over the coasts of Nicaragua or Honduras near the 72-h point. After that time, a west-southwestward motion is forecast, with the center of the cyclone moving across portions of Central America. The new forecast track is similar to, but slightly slower than, the previous forecast, and it lies in the center of the guidance envelope near the various consensus models. Iota is currently experiencing light westerly wind shear produced by an upper-level trough to the west. The shear should subside over the next 12-24 h as the trough moves westward and dissipates, leaving the cyclone in more favorable upper-level winds and over sea surface temperatures near 29C. Thus, conditions appear conducive for steady to rapid intensification once the storm becomes well enough organized internally to take advantage of the favorable environment. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and calls for rapid intensification to major hurricane intensity, with a peak intensity of near 105 kt as the system makes landfall in Central America. It should be noted that the HWRF and HMON forecast the center to go north of the official forecast track and keep it over water north of Honduras. As a result, they forecast a stronger cyclone than indciated by the official forecast. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area later today. 2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 13.5N 74.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 13.6N 75.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 13.9N 76.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 14.3N 78.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 14.5N 80.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 14.8N 82.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 14.9N 83.3W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 14.5N 86.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/0600Z 14.0N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 4
2020-11-14 09:39:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 140838 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 ...IOTA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 74.8W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued later today for portions of these countries. Interests in San Andres and Providencia should also monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 74.8 West. Iota is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A westward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is likely over the weekend, and Iota is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm). Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-11-14 09:39:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 140838 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0900 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 6(21) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 9(25) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 20(41) 8(49) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 5(23) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 35(39) 13(52) 2(54) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 8(28) 1(29) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 1(15) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 1(16) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 15(24) 5(29) 1(30) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LIMON 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) 1(12) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-11-14 09:38:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 140838 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0900 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA...AND A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTRIES. INTERESTS IN SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 74.8W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 74.8W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 74.5W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.6N 75.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.9N 76.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.3N 78.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.5N 80.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.8N 82.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.9N 83.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 14.5N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 14.0N 89.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 74.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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