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Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-11 16:43:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 11 the center of Leslie was located near 29.1, -38.3 with movement ENE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 61
2018-10-11 16:43:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 111443 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 61 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 ...LESLIE ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 38.3W ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 38.3 West. Leslie is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed could begin by late Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but weakening is expected over the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 61
2018-10-11 16:43:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 111443 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 61 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 38.3W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 25SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......140NE 160SE 160SW 210NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 330SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 38.3W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 39.3W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.3N 35.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 25SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.7N 30.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.8N 24.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 160SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.2N 20.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.3N 17.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 29.1N 19.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 27.5N 24.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 38.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Leslie Graphics
2018-10-11 10:52:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 08:52:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 08:52:12 GMT
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 60
2018-10-11 10:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 110849 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 60 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 The cloud pattern of Leslie has not changed significantly overnight. The hurricane has a large and ragged eye with deep convection most organized on its east side. The Dvorak CI-numbers are unchanged at 4.0/65 kt from TAFB and 4.5/77 kt from SAB, and based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt. Leslie will remain in low wind shear conditions and over relatively warm waters for another day or two, so little change in strength is expected during that time. Thereafter, the hurricane is forecast to move over waters as cool as 24 deg C and into an atmospheric environment of stronger shear and drier air. All of these conditions point to a weakening trend, which is likely to begin by the weekend. Most of the guidance shows a cold front approaching Leslie, but not quite merging with it so extratropical transition is not expected. However, it seems likely that Leslie will lose its convection and become a weaker post-tropical low in about 4 days. This scenario is supported by the latest runs of the GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models. Leslie has made the expected east-northeastward turn with the latest initial motion estimated to be 065/9. This east-northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast to continue for the next 2 days while the steering pattern holds. After that time, however, it becomes much less clear. The models continue to struggle and keep changing their tune cycle to cycle on whether or not Leslie continues east-northeastward toward Morocco or Portugal, or gets left behind and moves west-southwestward due to a building ridge. The ensemble members of both the GFS and ECMWF favor the left behind (or southwestward) solution, and the NHC track forecast continues to lean in that direction. This forecast does show Leslie moving farther east before it makes the southwestward turn to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 28.4N 40.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 29.3N 37.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 30.9N 33.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 32.1N 27.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 32.7N 22.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 31.3N 18.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 29.0N 19.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 16/0600Z 27.5N 24.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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