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Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-11 22:47:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Oct 11 the center of Leslie was located near 29.9, -36.5 with movement ENE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 62
2018-10-11 22:47:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 112047 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 62 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 ...LESLIE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 36.5W ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Portugal has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Madeira Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Madeira Island A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 36.5 West. Leslie is moving toward the east-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). A continued east-northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Friday. Leslie is forecast to slow down and turn toward the east or east-southeast by Saturday. On the forecast track, Leslie will pass near Madeira Island by late Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and early Friday, but steady weakening is forecast to begin by Friday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Madeira Island beginning Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of the Azores, Madeira Island and the Canary Islands through Saturday and could reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 62
2018-10-11 22:47:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 112047 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 62 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MADEIRA ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MADEIRA ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 36.5W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 25SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......140NE 160SE 160SW 210NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 330SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 36.5W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 37.5W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.0N 33.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 25SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.5N 27.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 33.3N 21.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.1N 17.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.9N 16.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 29.0N 18.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 28.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 36.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 61
2018-10-11 16:44:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 111444 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 61 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 Leslie's structure has remained steady since last night. The hurricane has a ragged banding eye surrounded by a somewhat patchy central dense overcast. Recent Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are unchanged, and still support an initial intensity of 70 kt. For days now, it has been clear that Leslie will accelerate east-northeastward on the south side of a mid-latitude trough moving across the North Atlantic. That acceleration is well underway now, and the initial motion estimate is 060/14 kt. It has been unclear, however, when (or if) Leslie could separate from this trough and begin to drift southward over the eastern Atlantic. The model spread has remarkably increased since yesterday, and nearly 1/3 of the members of the most recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs no longer forecast Leslie to separate from the trough at all, instead showing the cyclone approaching western Europe as an extratropical low. Even the deterministic model spread has increased, and the two NOAA regional hurricane models, the HWRF and HMON, are nearly 2300 miles apart at day 5. Through 48 h, the official track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, but it has been adjusted eastward beyond that time, to bring it closer to the most recent deterministic multi-model consensus. Confidence in the track forecast is not high at 72 h and beyond, and it's possible that large changes could still be required to future advisories. Leslie should remain in a generally favorable environment for strengthening during the next 24-36 h, and slight intensification is still expected, though the official intensity forecast is now on the high side of the guidance through this period. By 48 h and onward, Leslie will be moving into a far more stable environment and over cooler waters, so steady weakening is anticipated. If Leslie follows a track similar to the NHC forecast, it will likely become a weak post-tropical low within 96 h. However, if Leslie undergoes extratropical transition, its worth noting that the maximum winds associated with the cyclone would likely be higher than indicated here. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 29.1N 38.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 30.3N 35.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 31.7N 30.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 32.8N 24.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 33.2N 20.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 31.3N 17.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 29.1N 19.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 16/1200Z 27.5N 24.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 61
2018-10-11 16:44:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 111444 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 61 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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