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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-10-01 05:40:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 03:40:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 03:40:21 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 19
2018-10-01 04:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 30 2018 471 WTNT43 KNHC 010252 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 30 2018 Leslie has changed little in organization over the past few hours, with the convective burst previously in the southeastern quadrant now in the northeastern quadrant. Recent scatterometer data indicates that the current intensity is 45 kt, with those winds occurring in the northeastern semicircle. The scatterometer data also suggests that the radii of tropical-storm force winds has decreased a little. While Leslie continues to be affected by westerly shear, the global models show the upper-level pattern becoming more favorable over Leslie in about a day. This, combined with slightly warmer SSTs along the forecast track should allow Leslie to gradually strengthen during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, the storm is expected to move northeastward back over its previous track and cooler waters partly caused by its own upwelling, and that should cause at least a little weakening. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, and it lies above the forecast of the regional hurricane models and below the forecast of the statistical-dynamical models. The initial motion is 250/5. Leslie is forecast to remain in weak steering currents for the next 72 h, with a southwestward to southward drift expected. Thereafter, a shortwave trough moving southward to the west of Leslie should cause a motion toward the north-northeast or northeast and an increase in forward speed. There are no important changes to the guidance or to the forecast track, and the bottom line remains that Leslie is forecast to meander over the central Atlantic for the next several days. Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical low will continue to affect the east coast of the United States and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles for another day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Although the swells will diminish some by mid-week, they will likely remain hazardous for the same locations through the forecast period due to Leslie's slow motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 33.3N 53.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 33.0N 54.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 32.4N 54.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 31.5N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 30.8N 55.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 31.0N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 34.0N 54.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 37.0N 52.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2018-10-01 04:52:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 048 FONT13 KNHC 010252 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-01 04:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR MANY DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 30 the center of Leslie was located near 33.3, -53.7 with movement WSW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 19
2018-10-01 04:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 30 2018 910 WTNT33 KNHC 010251 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 30 2018 ...LESLIE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR MANY DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.3N 53.7W ABOUT 650 MI...1040 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 53.7 West. Leslie is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow southwestward or southward motion is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Leslie may become a hurricane in two to three days time. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles during the next day or two. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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