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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 20
2018-10-01 10:53:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 01 2018 435 WTNT43 KNHC 010853 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Mon Oct 01 2018 Leslie has become a little better organized overnight, with an increase in convective banding over the northern and northwestern portions of the circulation. ASCAT data around 0000 UTC revealed 40-45 kt winds over the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone and with the increase in organization since that time, the initial intensity has been raised to 50 kt. This is a little above the consensus Dvorak intensity estimates of T3.0 (45 kt) from TAFB and SAB. The shear that was affecting Leslie appears to have abated somewhat and with the system forecast to move southwestward toward slightly warmer waters, gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. Later in the period, Leslie is forecast to move north-northeastward back over its previous track where cooler upwelled waters are likely to produce some weakening. The updated NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity in 48 to 72 hours, but remains between the dynamical model guidance and the higher statistical models. Leslie continues to plod along with an initial motion estimate of 240/4 kt. The cyclone should move slowly southwestward to southward during the next couple of days as it remains within an area of weak steering currents. After that time, a shortwave trough to the northwest of Leslie is expected to allow the tropical cyclone to lift slowly north-northeastward by days 4 and 5. Although the dynamical model guidance is in agreement on this overall scenario, there is increasing cross-track (east-west) spread after 72 hours. The latest run of the ECMWF has shifted westward and brackets the western edge of the guidance envelope. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted in that direction, but it is not as far left as the various consensus aids out of respect of the previous track forecast. Regardless of the details of the forecast track, Leslie is still expected to meander over the central Atlantic through the remainder of this week. Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical low will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles for another day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Although the swells will diminish some by mid-week, they will likely remain hazardous for the same locations through the forecast period due to Leslie's slow motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 33.4N 53.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 33.1N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 32.2N 55.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 31.2N 55.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 30.6N 56.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 31.7N 55.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 35.0N 54.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 37.4N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2018-10-01 10:53:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 053 FONT13 KNHC 010853 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-01 10:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE STRENGTHENS WHILE MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Oct 1 the center of Leslie was located near 33.4, -53.9 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 20
2018-10-01 10:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 01 2018 712 WTNT33 KNHC 010852 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Mon Oct 01 2018 ...LESLIE STRENGTHENS WHILE MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.4N 53.9W ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 53.9 West. Leslie is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow southwestward or southward motion is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, portions of the coast of the southeastern United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 20
2018-10-01 10:52:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 026 WTNT23 KNHC 010852 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 53.9W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 300SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 53.9W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 53.7W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 33.1N 54.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 32.2N 55.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 130SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.2N 55.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 130SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.6N 56.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 130SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 31.7N 55.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 35.0N 54.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 37.4N 52.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N 53.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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