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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 19
2018-10-01 04:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 911 WTNT23 KNHC 010251 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 53.7W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 240SE 240SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 53.7W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 53.5W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.0N 54.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.4N 54.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.5N 55.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.8N 55.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 31.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 130SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 34.0N 54.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 37.0N 52.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 53.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-09-30 22:41:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Sep 2018 20:41:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Sep 2018 21:22:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-09-30 22:38:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 30 2018 762 WTNT43 KNHC 302038 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Sun Sep 30 2018 Leslie has generally changed little in organization today. The tropical storm continues to produce deep convection in a band to the southeast of the center, but there is a minimal amount of shower activity elsewhere. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 25 kt of northwesterly wind shear. The initial intensity is again held at 45 kt, but some of the satellite estimates suggest that this could be a little generous. The global models show the upper-level pattern becoming more favorable over Leslie in about a day, which combined with warmer SSTs should allow Leslie to gradually strengthen during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, the storm is expected to move northeastward back over its previous track and cooler waters partly caused by its own upwelling. These conditions should end the strengthening trend and induce some weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and in line with the IVCN, FSSE, and HCCA consensus models. Leslie is drifting to the southwest, with the latest initial motion estimate being 240/4 kt. The storm is forecast to remain in very weak steering currents, and Leslie will likely drift southward to southwestward during the next few days on the east side of a mid-level ridge. Thereafter, a developing trough to the southwest of Leslie should cause the system to move northeastward at a slightly faster pace. The models continue to shift back and forth each cycle, which is not surprising given the weak steering. This forecast is adjusted a little to the left of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models. The bottom line is that Leslie is forecast to meander over the central Atlantic for the next several days. Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical low will continue to affect the east coast of the United States and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles for another day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Although the swells will diminish some by mid-week, they will likely remain hazardous for the same locations through the forecast period due to Leslie's slow motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 33.5N 53.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 33.3N 53.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 32.9N 54.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 32.1N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 31.3N 55.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 31.0N 54.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 33.5N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 36.5N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2018-09-30 22:38:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-09-30 22:37:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR MANY DAYS... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 30 the center of Leslie was located near 33.5, -53.2 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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