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Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-09-22 16:54:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 221454 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 1(18) X(18) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 20(36) X(36) 1(37) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 20(33) 2(35) X(35) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 11(33) X(33) 1(34) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) SABA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 1 10(11) 13(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) DOMINICA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT VINCENT 34 72 X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) GRENADA 34 60 X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-22 16:54:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 22 the center of Karen was located near 12.5, -61.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 2
2019-09-22 16:54:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 221454 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...KAREN BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 61.7W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF GRENADA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Trinidad and Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 61.7 West. Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move away from the Windward Islands later today, and then across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), primarily in squalls to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2019-09-22 16:53:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 221453 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 61.7W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 61.7W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 61.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.1N 63.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N 64.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.4N 65.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.9N 65.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.7N 65.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 23.4N 65.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 25.3N 65.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 61.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 1A
2019-09-22 13:53:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 221153 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 800 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...CENTER OF KAREN PASSING JUST NORTH OF TOBAGO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 60.9W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF GRENADA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Trinidad and Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued later today for other portions of the Windward Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued later today for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Elsewhere, interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Karen. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 60.9 West. Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Karen will move across the Windward Islands today, and emerge over the southeastern Caribbean Sea tonight. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach those islands within the warning area this morning and afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. Far northeastern Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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