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Tropical Storm Karen Graphics
2019-09-23 04:55:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 02:55:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 02:55:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-09-23 04:54:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 230254 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 Karen remains poorly organized this evening, with the low-level center exposed to the north of the main convective mass due to the effects of 15-20 kt of northeasterly vertical shear. The initial intensity will be held at 35 kt based on earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data that included maximum 1500 ft flight-level winds of 42 kt and SFMR surface wind estimates near 35 kt. The initial motion is 295/10. The track guidance is in excellent agreement that Karen should turn northwestward during the next 6-12 h in response to a break in a ridge to the north of the storm, followed by a northward motion that would take the center near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands into the Atlantic between 36-48 h. Late in the forecast period, the steering currents are expected to weaken as a strong deep-layer ridge builds eastward from the United States into the western Atlantic. This should cause Karen to slow its forward motion. The new forecast track is little changed from the previous track and is near the center of the guidance envelope and the various consensus models. The upper-level winds are currently not favorable for significant development, and the current shear might get stronger during the next 12-24 h. Thus, little change in strength is forecast while Karen crosses the eastern Caribbean, and the system may have trouble maintaining tropical cyclone status. The environment becomes more favorable for development from 48 h on, and the intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during this time. The new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecasts. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of the southern Windward Islands through tonight. 2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch is in effect. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding are possible on these islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 13.1N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 13.9N 64.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 15.3N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 16.9N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 18.7N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 22.4N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 25.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 26.0N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 4
2019-09-23 04:54:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 230254 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...KAREN MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 63.5W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WNW OF GRENADA ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Grenada and its dependencies. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. Additional warnings and watches may be required for portions of these areas on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 63.5 West. Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight through Monday night. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday morning. RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Barbados...Additional rainfall less than 1 inch, storm totals 2 to 3 inches. Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 8 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. Far northeast Venezuela...1 to 3 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-09-23 04:54:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 230254 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) VIEQUES PR 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 19(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 15(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 7(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) ST EUSTATIUS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 5 9(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-09-23 04:53:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 230253 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. ADDITIONAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 63.5W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 63.5W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 63.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.9N 64.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.3N 65.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.9N 65.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.7N 66.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.4N 65.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 25.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 26.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 63.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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