je.st
news
Tag: karen
Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-23 19:57:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... As of 2:00 PM AST Mon Sep 23 the center of Karen was located near 15.5, -65.2 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
karen
tropical
Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 6A
2019-09-23 19:57:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 231757 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 200 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...KAREN BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 65.2W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to re in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen in your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of poorly organized Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 65.2 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected by Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea today, and pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday morning. Karen will move over the western Atlantic to the north of Puerto Rico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Karen could weaken to a tropical depression or degenerate into an open wave later today or tonight, however, little overall change in wind speed is expected over the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 3 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions expected in the warning area by Tuesday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Karen Graphics
2019-09-23 16:42:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 14:42:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 14:42:37 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
karen
tropical
Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-09-23 16:41:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 231441 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Although deep convection has recently developed near the low-level swirl seen in early morning visible satellite imagery, the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating Karen has had difficultly finding a closed surface circulation. It is possible that a center reformation will occur near the new convection, so the system is still being classified as a tropical cyclone for now. The aircraft has found believable SFMR winds of 30-35 kt over the eastern portion of the system, which still supports an initial intensity of 35 kt. Given the current structure of Karen and moderate to strong northeasterly shear that should remain over the storm for the next 24 hours, no change in strength is anticipated during that time. It is also possible that Karen could degenerate into an open wave, if it has not done so already. Regardless of whether or not Karen is a tropical cyclone when it passes near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the system is likely to produce tropical-storm-force winds in squalls and heavy rainfall over those areas. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for intensification, and the NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening like most of the typically reliable intensity guidance, however, the confidence in this portion of the intensity forecast is low. The initial motion estimate is 335/10 kt. Despite the overall lack of organization of the system, the track guidance is still in good agreement on Karen turning northward tonight or early Tuesday into a weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic caused by Tropical Storm Jerry to its north. After 72 hours, a deep-layer ridge is forecast to build over the southeastern United States and western Atlantic which should slow Karen's northward progress and could cause the system to essentially stall over the western Atlantic by the end of the period. The new NHC track forecast is again close to the previous advisory, and is near the consensus aids through 96 h. At 120 h, the NHC forecast is south of the consensus models in deference to the more equatorward position shown by the ECMWF, but the spread of the guidance by that time is quite large, and confidence in the track forecast at days 4 and 5 is quite low. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of Karen's status as a tropical cyclone, this system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 14.9N 64.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 16.0N 65.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 17.7N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 19.6N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 21.9N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 25.6N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 27.0N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 27.0N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
storm
karen
Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-09-23 16:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 231441 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PONCE PR 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) VIEQUES PR 34 2 32(34) 10(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) VIEQUES PR 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 24(26) 11(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) SAINT CROIX 34 5 33(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SABA 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST EUSTATIUS 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 1(24) X(24) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Sites : [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] next »