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Tropical Storm Karen Graphics
2019-09-22 19:48:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 17:48:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 15:32:27 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-22 19:48:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF KAREN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...GUSTY WINDS AND BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 2:00 PM AST Sun Sep 22 the center of Karen was located near 12.7, -62.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 2A
2019-09-22 19:48:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 221748 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 200 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...CENTER OF KAREN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...GUSTY WINDS AND BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 62.3W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM N OF GRENADA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Trinidad and Tobago. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grenada and its dependencies * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 62.3 West. Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move away from the Windward Islands later today, and then across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), primarily in squalls to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Karen Graphics
2019-09-22 17:01:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 15:01:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 15:01:29 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-09-22 16:59:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 221459 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 Radar and satellite imagery shows that convection associated with Karen has lost some organization since advisories were initiated early this morning. However, surface observations and a very recently arriving ASCAT data show that the circulation is well-defined, and is currently passing through the southern Windward Islands. Given the current sprawling structure, nearby dry mid-level air, and moderate northwesterly shear, no significant strengthening is expected through 48 hours. In fact, the system may have trouble surviving over the eastern Caribbean Sea as the global models predict an increase in northeasterly upper-level winds over the system on Monday. Once the cyclone moves north of Puerto Rico, the shear is forecast to decrease, and some strengthening is indicated in the official forecast, but this will depend on the structure of the system at that time. At this time, the long range intensity forecast is quite uncertain. The initial motion estimate is 290/11 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement on Karen turning northwestward, and then northward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge during the next day or two. A northward motion should continue into mid-week as a weakness in the ridge remains over the western Atlantic. After that time, models suggest that another ridge will begin to build over the southeastern U.S. and far western Atlantic which may cause Karen to slow down by the end of the forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and lies near the consensus models. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall will continue to affect the southern Windward Islands through tonight. 2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch has been issued. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding is possible on these islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 12.5N 61.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 13.1N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 14.2N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 15.4N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 16.9N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 20.7N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 23.4N 65.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 25.3N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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