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Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-23 16:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN NOT WELL ORGANIZED BUT HEADING TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 23 the center of Karen was located near 14.9, -64.8 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 6
2019-09-23 16:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 231441 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...KAREN NOT WELL ORGANIZED BUT HEADING TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 64.8W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 64.8 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected by Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea today, and pass pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday morning. Karen will move over the western Atlantic to the north of Puerto Rico on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little overall change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions expected in the warning area by Tuesday morning. Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 3 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 6
2019-09-23 16:41:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 231440 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 64.8W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 64.8W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 64.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.0N 65.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.7N 65.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.6N 65.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.9N 65.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.6N 65.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 27.0N 65.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 27.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 64.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Karen Graphics
2019-09-23 14:01:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 12:01:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 09:31:41 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-23 13:51:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KAREN... As of 8:00 AM AST Mon Sep 23 the center of Karen was located near 14.2, -64.4 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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