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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-09-22 22:37:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 The convective structure of Karen has continued to lose organization this afternoon, with the center becoming exposed to the north and northwest of the primary convective band. An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft investigating the storm has found a well-defined circulation, and flight-level and SFMR winds to support an intensity of around 30 kt. The plane, however, has not fully sampled the storm so the initial intensity remains 35 kt which is between the wind speeds indicated in earlier ASCAT data and the recent in situ observations. The upper-level environment ahead of Karen is forecast to remain unfavorable with the global models and SHIPS guidance predicting an increase in northeasterly shear by Monday. This is expected to prevent the storm from strengthening, and Karen may even have trouble maintaining tropical cyclone status while it moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. After the system moves north of Puerto Rico around midweek, it is forecast to reach more favorable upper-level conditions, and the NHC intensity forecast again calls for strengthening later in the forecast period. The new intensity forecast, however, is slightly more conservative than the previous one at days 3-5, and is a little above the latest intensity consensus (IVCN) model). The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. The track forecast philosophy is unchanged from earlier today. Karen should turn northwestward, and then northward during the next day or so as it begins to respond to a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. This motion should bring the center of Karen over Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. By late in the forecast period, the dynamical models build a strong deep-layer ridge over the southeast United States that extends northeastward over the western Atlantic. This pattern is likely to cause Karen to slow its northward progression by days 4 and 5. The track guidance remains in very good agreement, and only slight adjustments to the previous official forecast were required. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall will continue to affect the southern Windward Islands through tonight. 2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch has been issued. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding is possible on these islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 12.9N 62.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 13.7N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 14.9N 64.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 16.3N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 18.0N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 21.5N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 24.3N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 26.0N 66.3W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-22 22:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GUSTY WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 22 the center of Karen was located near 12.9, -62.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 3
2019-09-22 22:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 222036 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...GUSTY WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 62.7W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF GRENADA ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grenada and its dependencies * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 62.7 West. Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur later tonight or on Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move away from the Windward Islands this evening, and then move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday morning. RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-09-22 22:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 222036 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) VIEQUES PR 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 24(30) 5(35) X(35) X(35) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 6(30) X(30) X(30) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 17(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 2 15(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) DOMINICA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-09-22 22:36:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 222036 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 62.7W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 62.7W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 62.3W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.7N 63.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.9N 64.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.3N 65.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.0N 65.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.5N 65.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 24.3N 65.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 26.0N 66.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 62.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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