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Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-09-23 10:51:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 230851 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) VIEQUES PR 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 19(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 15(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 7(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) ST EUSTATIUS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 5 9(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)
2019-09-23 10:50:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISORGANIZED KAREN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 23 the center of Karen was located near 13.6, -63.9 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 5
2019-09-23 10:50:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 230850 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...DISORGANIZED KAREN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 63.9W ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM W OF ST. VINCENT ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 63.9 West. Karen is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next 48 hours due to strong upper-level winds. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), mainly northeast through southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected in the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 8 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Karen Graphics
2019-09-23 07:46:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 05:46:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 03:32:04 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 4A
2019-09-23 07:40:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 230540 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 200 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...KAREN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 63.6W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM W OF ST. VINCENT ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. Additional warnings and watches may be required for portions of these areas on later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 63.6 West. Karen is now moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday morning. RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Barbados...Additional rainfall less than 1 inch, storm totals 2 to 3 inches. Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 8 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. Far northeast Venezuela...1 to 3 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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