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Tropical Storm KAREN Public Advisory Number 2

2013-10-03 16:39:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 031438 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 ...KAREN A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 87.9W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE MAUREPAS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.9 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY. RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm KAREN Forecast Discussion Number 2

2013-10-03 16:39:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 031438 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 KAREN CONTINUES TO HAVE A SOMEWHAT SHEARED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 20 OR SO KT OF SHEAR ANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT BASED ON SEVERAL BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT. WITH MODERATE SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS KAREN APPROACHES THE GULF COAST...BUT THE STORM COULD STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. KAREN SHOULD BE INVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE BY DAY 4 AND ABSORBED BY THE FRONT BY DAY 5. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL A RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN 330/10. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONINS HAS NOT CHANGED...AS KAREN WILL MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE EAST/WEST SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. NOTE THAT A STRONGER STORM WOULD LIKELY MOVER FARTHER EAST...WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO TAKE A TRACK FARTHER WEST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 22.2N 87.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 23.8N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 25.4N 89.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 26.9N 89.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 28.2N 89.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 31.0N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/1200Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm KAREN Forecast Advisory Number 2

2013-10-03 16:36:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 031436 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE MAUREPAS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 87.9W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 87.9W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 87.6W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.8N 88.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 25.4N 89.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 26.9N 89.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 28.2N 89.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 31.0N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 35.0N 81.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 87.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm KAREN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2013-10-03 16:36:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 031436 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 2 13 40 NA TROP DEPRESSION X 4 3 10 22 33 NA TROPICAL STORM 73 66 54 62 56 21 NA HURRICANE 27 30 42 26 10 6 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 26 28 36 22 8 5 NA HUR CAT 2 1 2 6 3 1 X NA HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 60KT 65KT 60KT 45KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15(18) 6(24) X(24) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 5(22) X(22) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 18(27) 3(30) X(30) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 16(26) 2(28) X(28) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 26(37) 3(40) X(40) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) X(24) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 5(27) X(27) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) 34(52) 2(54) X(54) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) X(18) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) 18(36) 22(58) X(58) X(58) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 14(19) X(19) X(19) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) 27(48) 1(49) X(49) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 17(27) 21(48) X(48) X(48) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) STENNIS MS 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 14(25) 16(41) 1(42) X(42) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 X 5( 5) 17(22) 24(46) 13(59) X(59) X(59) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 8(22) X(22) X(22) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 3 12(15) 48(63) 15(78) 5(83) 1(84) X(84) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 1( 1) 23(24) 21(45) 5(50) X(50) X(50) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 13(24) 10(34) 1(35) X(35) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 7( 9) 25(34) 10(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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