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Tropical Storm KAREN Graphics
2013-10-04 05:09:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2013 02:48:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2013 03:05:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm KAREN Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2013-10-04 04:59:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2013 02:59:09 GMT
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Tropical Storm KAREN Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-10-04 04:44:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 040244 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1000 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 KAREN CONTINUES TO BE A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH A VIGOROUS CIRCULATION...AND WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THERE HAS BEEN AN EXCELLENT COVERAGE BY BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THAT RECONNAISSANCE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. THE SHEAR AFFECTING KAREN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST WEAKENING. IT IS BECOMING LESS REALISTIC THAT KAREN WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO...BUT GIVING CREDIT TO SOME DYNAMICAL MODELS...LIKE THE HWRF...WHICH DO SO...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT KAREN WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 4. FIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES INDICATE THAT KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. AS A NARROW RIDGE OVER FLORIDA WEAKENS OR SLIDES EASTWARD...AND A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OVERALL TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TYPICAL RECURVATURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FOLLOWS VERY CLOSELY THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST...NO CHANGE IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS IS NECESSARY AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS WILL BE REVISITED AS KAREN PROGRESSES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 24.2N 89.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 25.5N 89.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 26.9N 90.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 28.0N 90.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 29.2N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 32.5N 84.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 08/0000Z 36.5N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Storm KAREN (AT2/AL122013)
2013-10-04 04:44:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 the center of KAREN was located near 24.2, -89.0 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm KAREN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2013-10-04 04:44:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 040243 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 0300 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 4 21 40 NA TROP DEPRESSION 1 3 7 15 40 30 NA TROPICAL STORM 86 66 64 59 36 23 NA HURRICANE 14 31 28 22 3 7 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 13 28 25 19 2 6 NA HUR CAT 2 X 2 3 3 1 1 NA HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 60KT 60KT 35KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 19(24) 1(25) X(25) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) 1(23) X(23) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 18(29) 1(30) X(30) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 13(25) 1(26) X(26) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 8(15) 23(38) 1(39) X(39) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 2(23) X(23) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 20(26) X(26) X(26) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) 16(29) 27(56) X(56) X(56) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 4 8(12) 9(21) 18(39) 13(52) X(52) X(52) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X 7( 7) 9(16) 18(34) 16(50) X(50) X(50) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GULFPORT MS 34 1 8( 9) 14(23) 20(43) 10(53) X(53) X(53) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 1 9(10) 16(26) 17(43) 7(50) X(50) X(50) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 3 19(22) 26(48) 21(69) 3(72) 1(73) X(73) BURAS LA 50 X 2( 2) 10(12) 13(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 34 11 42(53) 17(70) 8(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 12(12) 15(27) 7(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 2 10(12) 19(31) 13(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 5 34(39) 20(59) 5(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 8( 8) 13(21) 3(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 6( 7) 10(17) 7(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 6( 7) 8(15) 4(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 6( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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