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Summary for Tropical Storm KAREN (AT2/AL122013)
2013-10-04 19:58:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 the center of KAREN was located near 25.8, -90.2 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm KAREN Public Advisory Number 6A
2013-10-04 19:58:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 041758 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 100 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 ...KAREN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 90.2W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE MAUREPAS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN * DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42001 LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES...50 KM...EAST OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 42 MPH...68 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH...86 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...3 TO 5 FT EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm KAREN Graphics
2013-10-04 17:09:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2013 14:33:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2013 15:05:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm KAREN Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2013-10-04 16:44:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2013 14:44:17 GMT
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Tropical Storm KAREN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2013-10-04 16:32:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 041432 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 5 10 33 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 4 16 16 20 36 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 93 76 70 56 26 NA NA HURRICANE 2 5 10 14 5 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 5 9 13 5 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 1 NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 19(23) X(23) X(23) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) X(22) X(22) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) 18(29) X(29) X(29) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 12(23) X(23) X(23) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 16(33) X(33) X(33) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) X(16) X(16) PENSACOLA FL 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 20(28) 12(40) X(40) X(40) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 5( 7) 7(14) 21(35) 9(44) X(44) X(44) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 1 5( 6) 7(13) 16(29) 8(37) X(37) X(37) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GULFPORT MS 34 2 8(10) 10(20) 17(37) 4(41) X(41) X(41) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) STENNIS MS 34 2 9(11) 13(24) 14(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BURAS LA 34 6 17(23) 20(43) 13(56) 3(59) X(59) X(59) BURAS LA 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 21 16(37) 12(49) 7(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSON MS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 3 13(16) 14(30) 10(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 29 27(56) 11(67) 4(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) GFMX 280N 910W 50 1 9(10) 6(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 9(10) 9(19) 5(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) NEW IBERIA LA 34 2 8(10) 9(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) GFMX 280N 930W 34 3 8(11) 7(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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