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Tropical Storm KAREN Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-10-04 16:32:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 041432 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 AFTER BEING DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KAREN... DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...BUT THE CYCLONE IS STILL BEING AFFECTED BY 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE CYCLONE. THE LAST CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...AND BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF AIRCRAFT DATA THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 45 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...WITH MODERATE SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...IF THE SHEAR DOES LESSEN...EVEN FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...DEEP CONVECTION COULD RE-DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE CENTER AND ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. IN ADDITION...BY 48 HOURS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A STRENGTHENING TO 55 KT BY 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN 325 AND 330 DEGREES AT ABOUT 9 OR 10 KT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE FUTURE TRACK WILL BE QUITE SENSITIVE TO THE STRUCTURE OF KAREN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE SHORT TERM A WEAKER SHALLOWER SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED MORE TOWARD THE LEFT BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHILE A DEEPER MORE VERTICALLY COHERENT CYCLONE WOULD TURN NORTHWARD MORE QUICKLY DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE CURRENT APPEARANCE OF KAREN AND THE CONTINUED SHEAR...THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS TOWARD THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH SHOW A WEAKER SYSTEM. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD TURN IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...BUT WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE LATITUDE AT WHICH THE TURN OCCURS AND SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD AND THE DEPENDENCE OF THE TRACK ON THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF KAREN...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST...AND THEREFORE THE DISTRIBUTION OF IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...IS LOW. THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET SAMPLED THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR KAREN AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. THESE DATA WILL BE INCORPORATED INTO THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE...AND HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE STORM. GIVEN THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE NHC TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND AND THE REDUCTION IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...IT HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS LIKELKY THAT KAREN WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 25.6N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 26.6N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 27.7N 90.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 28.6N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 29.8N 88.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 33.5N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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karen
Summary for Tropical Storm KAREN (AT2/AL122013)
2013-10-04 16:31:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN A LITTLE WEAKER... ...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 the center of KAREN was located near 25.6, -90.2 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm KAREN Public Advisory Number 6
2013-10-04 16:31:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 041431 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 ...KAREN A LITTLE WEAKER... ...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 90.2W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE MAUREPAS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN * DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY... WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42001 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 51 MPH...83 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...3 TO 5 FT EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm KAREN Forecast Advisory Number 6
2013-10-04 16:31:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 041431 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE MAUREPAS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN * DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE DISCONTINUED OR CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 90.2W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 90.2W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 90.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 26.6N 90.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.7N 90.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 28.6N 90.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 29.8N 88.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 33.5N 83.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 90.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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karen
Summary for Tropical Storm KAREN (AT2/AL122013)
2013-10-04 13:43:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY... As of 7:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 the center of KAREN was located near 25.2, -90.0 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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