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Tropical Storm KAREN Public Advisory Number 5
2013-10-04 10:51:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 040851 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 ...KAREN WEAKENS A LITTLE...EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 89.8W ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE MAUREPAS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN * DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.8 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...3 TO 5 FT EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm KAREN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2013-10-04 10:51:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 040851 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 5 19 36 NA TROP DEPRESSION 2 9 11 15 39 26 NA TROPICAL STORM 92 79 69 58 38 27 NA HURRICANE 6 11 19 23 4 12 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 11 17 20 3 9 NA HUR CAT 2 X X 2 3 1 2 NA HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 35KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 21(24) 1(25) X(25) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 19(22) 2(24) X(24) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 20(27) 1(28) X(28) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 15(23) 1(24) X(24) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 25(35) X(35) X(35) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 2(22) X(22) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20(24) 1(25) X(25) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 12(20) 31(51) X(51) X(51) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 4( 7) 6(13) 16(29) 16(45) 1(46) X(46) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 16(26) 21(47) X(47) X(47) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GULFPORT MS 34 1 5( 6) 11(17) 18(35) 14(49) X(49) X(49) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) STENNIS MS 34 1 6( 7) 12(19) 18(37) 10(47) X(47) X(47) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 3 11(14) 23(37) 21(58) 8(66) X(66) X(66) BURAS LA 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 13 22(35) 18(53) 10(63) 3(66) X(66) X(66) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 8(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 2 7( 9) 14(23) 17(40) 7(47) X(47) X(47) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 7 29(36) 21(57) 9(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 6( 6) 12(18) 6(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 8(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 6(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 5( 6) 7(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GALVESTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm KAREN Forecast Advisory Number 5
2013-10-04 10:51:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 040850 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE MAUREPAS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN * DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 89.8W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 30SE 0SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 89.8W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 89.5W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 25.9N 90.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 27.0N 90.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.0N 90.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.1N 89.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 32.5N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 37.5N 77.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 89.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Storm KAREN (AT2/AL122013)
2013-10-04 07:45:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 the center of KAREN was located near 24.5, -89.5 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm KAREN Public Advisory Number 4A
2013-10-04 07:45:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 040545 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 100 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 ...KAREN CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 89.5W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE MAUREPAS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN * DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND KAREN COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE KAREN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...3 TO 5 FT EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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