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Tropical Storm KAREN Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-10-03 15:13:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 031312 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 800 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB AND SURFACE WINDS AROUND 50 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM KAREN. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE INTENSIFY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED AS KAREN APPROACHES THE GULF COAST...BUT THE STORM COULD STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 340/11 GIVEN THE RECENT FORMATION OF THE CENTER. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEST/EAST SPREAD IN THE TRACKS...WITH THE ECMWF ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS FARTHEST EAST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH LANDFALL. NOTE THAT A TRACK FARTHER EAST WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A STRONGER STORM...WHILE KAREN WOULD LIKELY BE WEAKER IF IT TAKES A TRACK FARTHER WEST. GIVEN THE FORECAST...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1300Z 22.0N 87.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 23.4N 88.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 25.4N 88.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 27.0N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 28.3N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 31.0N 87.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/0600Z 34.5N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/0600Z 38.5N 77.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm KAREN Graphics
2013-10-03 15:04:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2013 13:04:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2013 12:57:44 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm KAREN (AT2/AL122013)
2013-10-03 15:04:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 8:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 the center of KAREN was located near 22.0, -87.6 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm KAREN Public Advisory Number 1
2013-10-03 15:04:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 031304 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 800 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 ...TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 87.6W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA... * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE MAUREPAS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY. RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm KAREN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-10-03 15:01:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1300 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 031300 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1300 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 AT 1300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 1 2 11 41 55 TROP DEPRESSION 1 3 4 12 17 38 19 TROPICAL STORM 84 65 51 57 59 17 16 HURRICANE 15 32 44 28 14 4 10 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 14 28 37 23 12 3 9 HUR CAT 2 1 3 5 4 1 1 1 HUR CAT 3 1 1 2 1 X X 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 65KT 60KT 50KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 13(19) 4(23) 1(24) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 12(18) 4(22) X(22) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 14(27) 3(30) X(30) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 11(26) 3(29) X(29) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 20(36) 2(38) X(38) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) X(24) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 16(21) 8(29) 1(30) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 15(23) 26(49) 3(52) 1(53) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) X(17) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 21(43) 14(57) 1(58) X(58) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 11(21) 1(22) X(22) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 24(45) 3(48) X(48) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24) 20(44) 2(46) X(46) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) 16(38) 2(40) X(40) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 20(37) 14(51) X(51) 1(52) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 9(18) X(18) X(18) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 9(10) 41(51) 14(65) 6(71) 1(72) X(72) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 1( 1) 19(20) 13(33) 4(37) 1(38) X(38) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) 12(31) 1(32) X(32) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 10(27) 5(32) X(32) X(32) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MERIDA MX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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