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Tropical Storm KAREN Public Advisory Number 5A
2013-10-04 13:43:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 041143 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 700 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 ...KAREN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 90.0W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE MAUREPAS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN * DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT... WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42001 LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH...61 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 49 MPH...79 KM/H. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...3 TO 5 FT EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm KAREN Graphics
2013-10-04 11:09:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2013 08:53:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2013 09:05:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm KAREN Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2013-10-04 11:04:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2013 09:04:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm KAREN Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-10-04 10:52:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 040851 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 KAREN IS SHOWING THE AFFECTS OF 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 100 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER. REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1002 MB...AND THAT BOTH THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS HAVE DECREASED. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/9. KAREN IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE KAREN TO TURN NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD...WITH THE BIG QUESTION BEING THE TIMING OF THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN. THE UKMET...NAVGEM...AND CANADIAN MODELS DELAY THE TURN UNTIL AFTER KAREN MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE GFS SHOWS THE SHARPEST TURN...AND IT CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE GFDL...HWRF...AND ECMWF ARE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES WITH LANDFALL FORECASTS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OVERALL... THE GUIDANCE IS SLOWER THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO...AND THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REFLECTS THESE TRENDS WITH A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. GIVEN THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE...THE FORECAST OF THE LANDFALL POSITION IS LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER PROBLEMATIC. FIRST...KAREN IS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE SOME SUPPORT FOR RENEWED CONVECTION. SECOND...THE SHEAR MAY DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY IF KAREN TURNS NORTHEASTWARD WHILE STILL OVER WATER. THE ECMWF SHOWS ABOUT 10 MB OF DEEPENING AFTER RECURVATURE...AND THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS SHOW MORE. BASED ON THESE MODELS AND CURRENT TRENDS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MODIFIED TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...KAREN SHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MERGES WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. SINCE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NO CHANGE IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS IS NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BE REVISITED AS KAREN PROGRESSES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 24.9N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 25.9N 90.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 27.0N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 28.0N 90.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 29.1N 89.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 32.5N 84.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 08/0600Z 37.5N 77.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Storm KAREN (AT2/AL122013)
2013-10-04 10:51:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KAREN WEAKENS A LITTLE...EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT... As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 the center of KAREN was located near 24.9, -89.8 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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