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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 12A
2015-06-13 19:38:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 131738 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 100 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 ...CARLOS STILL MEANDERING SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 100.0W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Carlos was located by satellite and radar data near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 100.0 West. Carlos has been erratically moving during the past few hours, but is expected to move toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) by later today. A west-northwest to northwest motion at an increasing forward speed is expected over the next day or two. Carlos is expected to move nearly parallel to the coast of Mexico for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast over the next couple of days. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by tonight or Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Monday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce 2-4 inches of rain across the southwestern coast of Mexico through Tuesday with locally higher amounts around 6 inches. The states of Mexico affected include Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-13 17:07:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Jun 2015 14:54:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Jun 2015 15:03:44 GMT
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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-06-13 16:55:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 131455 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 Satellite data indicate that Carlos has strengthened with a ragged eye becoming apparent on the latest visible imagery. In addition, radar data from Acapulco show that an eyewall has become established, although it is still open on the north side. Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB are 65 kt, so this will be the initial intensity. After an eastward jog overnight, Carlos appears to have resumed a northwestward drift. For the rest of the weekend, a building ridge over Mexico is expected to steer Carlos generally to the west-northwest. Thereafter, a mid-level trough near the Baja California peninsula should cause Carlos to turn northwestward. However, the hurricane is now farther to the east than expected yesterday, which has moved the track closer to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Track guidance has been steadily shifting eastward, and a few models are now showing landfall in Mexico. While I am not yet ready to show that solution, the NHC prediction has been shifted eastward to account for the greater threat to Mexico. Accordingly, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch for a portion of the southwestern coast. Since Carlos is expected to remain over very warm water with decreasing shear, it seems likely that further intensification will occur over the next day or so. However, there is very poor agreement on what will occur after that time due to competing atmospheric factors and possible land interaction. The new NHC forecast stays on the upper end of the guidance and is raised from the previous one. It is worth noting that the normally conservative HWRF is above the latest NHC prediction. With Carlos becoming a hurricane, this is the second earliest on record that the third hurricane has occurred in the eastern Pacific season, one day behind the third hurricane of 1956. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 14.9N 100.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 15.2N 100.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 15.8N 101.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 16.3N 102.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 16.9N 103.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 18.6N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 20.5N 106.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 22.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Hurricane CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-13 16:54:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 the center of CARLOS was located near 14.9, -100.2 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 12
2015-06-13 16:54:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 131454 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 100.2W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo and a Tropical Storm Warning from Tecpan de Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Carlos was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 100.2 West. Carlos is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this motion, with an increase in forward speed, is expected over the next day or two. Carlos is expected to move nearly parallel to the coast for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Carlos is the third hurricane of the 2015 eastern Pacific season. Some increase in strength is forecast over the next couple of days. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by tonight or Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Monday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce 2-4 inches of rain across the southwestern coast of Mexico through Tuesday with locally higher amounts around 6 inches. The states of Mexico affected include Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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