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Tropical Storm BILL Graphics
2015-06-17 04:49:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Jun 2015 02:49:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Jun 2015 02:40:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm BILL Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-06-17 04:42:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 170241 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 Bill has continued to weaken while it moves farther inland over Texas. The initial intensity is estimated at 35 kt, but surface observations indicate that these winds are confined to a few rainbands over water to the southeast of the center. Because most of the circulation is already inland, additional weakening is anticipated, and Bill is expected to become a tropical depression Wednesday morning, and a remnant low on Thursday. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 350 degrees at 10 kt, and this is based primarily on NWS Doppler Radar data. Bill is forecast to move northward for the next day or so around the western periphery of high pressure centered over the southeastern United States. After that time, the cyclone or its remnants will move toward the northeast while embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. Most likely the system will become absorbed by a front by day 4. The main hazard from Bill is expected to be primarily heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma over the next day or two. Please see products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on the flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 29.5N 97.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/1200Z 31.0N 97.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0000Z 33.2N 97.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z 34.8N 96.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0000Z 35.5N 94.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 20/0000Z 37.5N 90.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm BILL (AT2/AL022015)
2015-06-17 04:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BILL EXPECTED TO SOAK PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 the center of BILL was located near 29.5, -97.0 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm BILL Public Advisory Number 5
2015-06-17 04:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 170240 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...BILL EXPECTED TO SOAK PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 97.0W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM N OF VICTORIA TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Port O'Connor. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass Texas For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 97.0 West. Bill is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue on Wednesday with a turn to the northeast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Bill is expected to become a tropical depression early Wednesday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. These winds are confined to a few rainbands to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bill is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma and 3 to 6 inches over western Arkansas and southern Missouri. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in Texas and Oklahoma. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area, but these winds should begin to subside soon. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Upper Texas and Western Louisiana coasts...1 to 2 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast to the southeast of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of east-central Texas through early Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm BILL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2015-06-17 04:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 17 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 170240 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 0300 UTC WED JUN 17 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HOUSTON TX 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) FREEPORT TX 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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