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Tropical Storm BILL Update Statement
2015-06-16 18:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTNT62 KNHC 161655 TCUAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 1155 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...BILL MAKES LANDFALL ON MATAGORDA ISLAND... The center of Tropical Storm Bill made landfall on Matagorda Island, Texas at 1145 AM CDT...1645 UTC. During the past hour, a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) was reported at both Palacios, Texas and Port O'Connor, Texas. At 1130 AM CDT, the water level at Port Lavaca, Texas, was about 3 feet above normal. SUMMARY OF 1145 CDT...1645 UTC...INFORMATION -------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 96.7W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF ROCKPORT TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm BILL Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-06-16 16:56:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 161456 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 Tropical Storm Bill is nearing the central Texas coast just south of Port O'Connor, and the cyclone should move inland shortly. Although the satellite presentation isn't terribly impressive, NOAA Doppler radar data and SFMR, flight-level, and dropsonde wind reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft support an intensity of 50 kt. After Bill makes landfall, steady weakening will begin as the cyclone moves farther inland over Texas, although the GFS suggests that baroclinic forcing will help maintain the post-tropical remnants as a distinct entity for a few days. The initial motion estimate is 305/09 kt. Bill is expected to move around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high located over the southeastern U.S. during the next day or two. By 48 hours, the cyclone is forecast to get caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a turn and acceleration to the northeastward to east-northeast. The global and regional models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track and a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. Although the storm's strongest winds are located very close to the center, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are occurring well away from the center. The main hazard from Bill is expected to be heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma over the next day or two. Please see products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on the flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 28.2N 96.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 29.7N 97.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 31.6N 97.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0000Z 33.4N 97.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 18/1200Z 34.9N 96.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 19/1200Z 36.8N 92.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 20/1200Z 39.3N 87.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm BILL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2015-06-16 16:56:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 161456 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 1500 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PORT ARTHUR TX 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUSTON TX 34 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) AUSTIN TX 34 5 10(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) FREEPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 950W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 34 59 X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm BILL (AT2/AL022015)
2015-06-16 16:55:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM BILL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF TEXAS... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 the center of BILL was located near 28.2, -96.4 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm BILL Public Advisory Number 3
2015-06-16 16:55:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 161455 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM BILL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 96.4W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SW OF FREEPORT TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to High Island Texas For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 96.4 West. Bill is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. The center of Bill is expected to make landfall on Matagorda Island within the next hour or two, and move inland over south-central Texas this afternoon and tonight. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast after the center moves inland later today, and Bill is expected to weaken to a tropical depression overnight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. During the past hour, a WeatherFlow observing station at Matagorda Bay reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h). An automated observing station at Port O'Connor also reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bill is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma and 2 to 4 inches over western Arkansas and southern Missouri, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in eastern Texas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area and will likely continue into the evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Upper Texas coast...2 to 4 feet Western Louisiana coast...1 to 2 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across portions of eastern Texas and far western Louisiana today and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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