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Tropical Storm BILL Forecast Advisory Number 5
2015-06-17 04:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 17 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 170240 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 0300 UTC WED JUN 17 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF PORT O'CONNOR. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 97.0W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 97.0W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 96.9W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.0N 97.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.2N 97.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 34.8N 96.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 35.5N 94.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 37.5N 90.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 97.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm BILL Graphics
2015-06-17 01:46:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Jun 2015 23:46:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Jun 2015 21:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm BILL Public Advisory Number 4A
2015-06-17 01:42:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 162341 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 700 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...BILL MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 96.9W ABOUT 10 MI...16 KM NE OF VICTORIA TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 96.9 West. Bill is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the north on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Bill is expected to become a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) to the southeast east of the center. During the past hour, a wind gust to 54 mph (87 km/h) was measured at Palacios, Texas. Several offshore oil rigs continue to report sustained tropical-storm-force winds. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bill is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma and 2 to 4 inches over western Arkansas and southern Missouri, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in eastern Texas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area to the northeast and east of the center. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Upper Texas and Western Louisiana coasts...1 to 2 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of southeast and east central Texas and western Louisiana tonight through early Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm BILL Graphics
2015-06-16 23:09:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Jun 2015 20:49:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Jun 2015 21:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm BILL Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-06-16 22:53:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 162052 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 After an earlier westward wobble, Bill is now moving toward the north-northwest or north based on Doppler radar data. My best estimate for a storm motion is 330/08 kt. Bill is expected to move north-northwestward tonight and turn toward the north over north-central Texas on Monday as the cyclone moves through a break in the subtropical ridge. By 36-48 hours, Bill is forecast to get caught up into the mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate off to the northeast and east-northeast. By 120 hours, the remnant circulation is expected to merge with a frontal system across the Ohio Valley region. The global models are in good agreement on this developing scenario and the NHC forecast track is just an update of the previous one, and lies close to a blend of the slower GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models. Although the inner-core banding structure of Bill has improved in radar imagery, the cyclone is expected to slowly weaken as the system continues to move farther inland. Bill should weaken to a tropical depression by Wednesday morning and become a remnant low by Wednesday evening when the system is moving across northern Texas. The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models now suggest that baroclinic forcing associated with an upper-level trough will help maintain the post-tropical remnants as a distinct entity for a few days before being absorbed by a frontal system by day 5. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains continue to occur well away from the center. The main hazard from Bill is expected to be heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma over the next day or two. Please see products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on the flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 28.4N 96.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/0600Z 29.9N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1800Z 32.0N 97.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0600Z 33.6N 97.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 18/1800Z 34.7N 95.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 19/1800Z 36.7N 92.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 20/1800Z 39.0N 86.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 21/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ Forecaster Stewart
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