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Tropical Storm BILL Graphics
2015-06-16 05:04:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Jun 2015 02:08:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Jun 2015 03:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm BILL Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-06-16 04:10:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160210 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and surface observations indicate that the circulation associated with the low located in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better defined since earlier today. While the circulation still appears to be somewhat elongated, the center is defined enough to consider the system a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Bill at this time. The aircraft data indicate an area of 40-45 kt winds north and east of the center, and the initial intensity is set to 45 kt for this advisory. Given the relatively broad nature of the system, the large radius of maximum winds, and the somewhat ragged convective pattern, only a little strengthening is expected before the center reaches the coast tomorrow, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance. After landfall Bill is expected to weaken to a depression after 24 hours, and the low-level circulation is forecast to dissipate by 48 hours following the GFS and ECMWF solutions. Note that the global models subsequently show the low- to mid-level remnants of Bill moving northward and then northeastward ahead of an upper trough into the southern Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley. The initial motion estimate is a relatively uncertain 320/10 given the recent formation of the center. The primary steering mechanism is a mid-level anticyclone centered over the southeastern United States, which should result in Bill moving northwestward toward the Texas coast in the next 12 hours and then inland over south-central Texas. The track model guidance is in generally good agreement through landfall. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the latest model fields from the UKMET, ECMWF, and GFS models and is a little to the left of the multi-model consensus. It is important not to focus on the exact track of the center, given the large area across which heavy rains and tropical storm conditions are expected to occur. Given this forecast, a tropical storm warning has been issued for much of the middle and upper Texas coast. However, the main hazard associated with Bill and its remnants will be heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern Texas. Please see products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on the flooding hazard. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 27.1N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 28.3N 95.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 29.7N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1200Z 31.5N 98.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm BILL (AT2/AL022015)
2015-06-16 04:08:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED AS TROPICAL STORM BILL FORMS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 the center of BILL was located near 27.1, -94.2 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm BILL Public Advisory Number 1
2015-06-16 04:08:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160208 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED AS TROPICAL STORM BILL FORMS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 94.2W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas from Baffin Bay to High Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 94.2 West. Bill is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track the center of Bill is expected to make landfall in the warning area along the Texas coast Tuesday morning and move inland over south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before landfall. Weakening is forecast after the center moves inland on Tuesday, and Bill is expected to weaken to a tropical depression Tuesday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bill is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma and 2 to 4 inches over western Louisiana and western Arkansas, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in eastern Texas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Upper Texas coast...2 to 4 feet Western Louisiana coast...1 to 2 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm BILL Forecast Advisory Number 1
2015-06-16 04:06:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 160206 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 0300 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 94.2W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 94.2W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 94.0W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.3N 95.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.7N 97.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N 98.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 94.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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