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Tropical Storm Nate Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2017-10-06 23:27:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 06 Oct 2017 21:27:38 GMT

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Tropical Storm Nate Graphics

2017-10-06 23:08:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Oct 2017 21:08:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Oct 2017 21:23:37 GMT

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Tropical Storm Nate Forecast Discussion Number 10

2017-10-06 23:02:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 062101 CCA TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 10...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017 CORRECTED MAX RAINFALL AMOUNT IN KEY MESSAGES Satellite imagery this afternoon indicates that convection associated with Nate is becoming better organized, with a strong convective band now wrapping about three-quarters of the way around the center. Recent data from NOAA buoy 42056 near the center suggest the central pressure has fallen to near 993 mb, and the buoy just reported a 1-minute average wind of 49 kt. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 50 kt. The next aircraft investigating Nate is scheduled to arrive near 22Z. The initial motion is north-northwestward or 340/18 kt. Nate remains between a complex deep-layer low pressure area over the western Gulf of Mexico and Central America and a building ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic. This combination should steer the storm quickly north-northwestward for the next 24 h or so. After that, Nate should turn northward and northeastward as it goes around the western edge of the ridge and recurves into the mid-latitude westerlies. The guidance remains in good agreement with the direction of motion, and it has come into better agreement on the speed. Thus, the new forecast track is similar to, but slightly to the west of the the previous track, and it calls for the center of Nate to pass near or over the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 6 h, followed by landfall on the northern Gulf Coast around the 36-h point. It should be noted that the ECMWF and GFS are both a little to the left of the current track. Conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening up to landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, and Nate is expected to make landfall there as a hurricane. The new intensity forecast, which is an update of the previous one, lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Given the current developments, there is still a possibility of a period of rapid intensification as Nate crosses the Gulf of Mexico. As alternative scenarios to the actual forecast of steady strengthening, the ECMWF forecasts no additional strengthening as Nate crosses the Gulf of Mexico, and the GFS/UKMET forecast little additional strengthening until the last 12 h before landfall. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Nate could be near hurricane intensity when it passes near or over the Yucatan Peninsula during the next several hours bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a portion of this area, and life-threatening flash flooding is also possible. 2. Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, and a storm surge warning is now in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida. Residents in these areas should heed any evacuation instructions given by local officials. 3. A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in these areas. 4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches from the central Gulf Coast states into the eastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians through this weekend, resulting in the possibility of flash flooding in these areas. 5. Heavy rainfall from Nate will continue to be a threat in portions of Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and Belize through tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 20.3N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 23.0N 87.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 26.8N 88.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 29.9N 89.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 33.1N 87.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/1800Z 39.5N 78.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 10/1800Z 43.5N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Nate Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2017-10-06 22:56:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 06 Oct 2017 20:56:30 GMT

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Tropical Storm Nate Public Advisory Number 10

2017-10-06 22:54:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 062054 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017 ...NATE STRENGTHENS AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 85.7W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect east of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect east of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Pinar del Rio * Lake Maurepas * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Lake Maurepas * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana * Isle of Youth A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Nate. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 85.7 West. Nate is moving toward the north-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday, with a turn toward the north and northeast expected Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will move near or over the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula this evening. Nate will then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight, approach the northern Gulf coast Saturday, and then move make landfall over the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or Sunday. Reports from NOAA buoy 42056, located just north and east of the center, indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Nate is expected to become a hurricane by the time it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) mainly to the east of the center. NOAA buoy 42056 recently reported a 1-minute average wind of 56 mph (91 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 mph (111 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). NOAA buoy 42056 reported a minimum pressure of 995.6 mb as the center of Nate passed nearby. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Monday: Western Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador: Lingering inflow bands will bring additional 2-4 inches, max 6 inches. Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches. Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches. East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches. Across the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches. Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba tonight, and are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight. Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Saturday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area Saturday night, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday. STORM SURGE: In the United States, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to 6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border...5 to 8 ft Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass, Florida...4 to 6 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. In Mexico, a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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