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Hurricane Florence Graphics
2018-09-11 22:53:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 20:53:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 21:22:12 GMT
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Hurricane Florence Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-09-11 22:42:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 20:42:58 GMT
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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 50
2018-09-11 22:40:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 240 FONT11 KNHC 112040 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) X(17) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) X(22) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) 2(26) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 7(21) X(21) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 6(28) 1(29) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 11(34) 2(36) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 11(35) 2(37) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 14(42) 2(44) CHARLOTTESVIL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) CHARLOTTESVIL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 34(40) 13(53) 2(55) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 44(51) 16(67) 4(71) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 11(25) 1(26) DANVILLE VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 39(49) 11(60) 2(62) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) 1(18) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 40(50) 11(61) 2(63) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 1(19) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 39(50) 11(61) 2(63) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) X(19) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 42(64) 10(74) 2(76) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 7(31) 1(32) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 45(51) 16(67) 4(71) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 10(24) 2(26) GREENSBORO NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 56(69) 15(84) 2(86) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 12(48) 2(50) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 9(23) X(23) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 53(74) 13(87) 2(89) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) 11(54) 2(56) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 7(28) 1(29) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 26(26) 54(80) 12(92) 2(94) X(94) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 23(51) 4(55) 1(56) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 4(25) X(25) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 55(79) 10(89) 2(91) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 46(50) 13(63) 2(65) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 9(36) 1(37) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 34(39) 15(54) 4(58) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 2(15) CHARLOTTE NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 66(72) 22(94) 3(97) 1(98) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 45(72) 7(79) 1(80) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 39(47) 8(55) 1(56) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 29(29) 62(91) 8(99) X(99) 1(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 56(57) 27(84) 3(87) X(87) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 25(25) 35(60) 4(64) 1(65) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 26(26) 64(90) 9(99) X(99) 1(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 55(56) 30(86) 3(89) 1(90) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 39(62) 6(68) 1(69) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 66(72) 23(95) 2(97) 1(98) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 48(78) 7(85) 1(86) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 45(56) 8(64) 1(65) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 60(65) 29(94) 2(96) X(96) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 50(74) 7(81) 1(82) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 44(52) 8(60) 1(61) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 16(16) 67(83) 13(96) 1(97) X(97) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 37(78) 3(81) 1(82) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 36(52) 6(58) 1(59) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 49(63) 12(75) 2(77) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 10(36) 2(38) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 2(19) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 33(38) 12(50) 3(53) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 2(14) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) 40(85) 4(89) 1(90) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 43(52) 8(60) 2(62) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 7(34) 1(35) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 52(58) 29(87) 3(90) X(90) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 36(48) 7(55) 1(56) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 6(30) 1(31) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 41(65) 8(73) 2(75) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 7(33) 2(35) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) 2(17) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 34(43) 11(54) 1(55) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 3(17) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 19(24) 10(34) 3(37) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 10(28) 4(32) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 8(24) 4(28) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-11 22:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DANGEROUS FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 11 the center of Florence was located near 27.5, -67.1 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 50
2018-09-11 22:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 226 WTNT31 KNHC 112040 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 ...DANGEROUS FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 67.1W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. A Hurricane Warning has been issued from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light, Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina * North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina * North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. Additional watches and warnings may be required tonight or Wednesday. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Florence was located by satellite near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 67.1 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected through early Thursday. Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late Thursday into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further strengthening is forecast tonight and Wednesday. While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...9-13 ft North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear...6-9 ft Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...6-9 ft South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach...4-6 ft Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...4-6 ft Edisto Beach to South Santee River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches near the storm's track over portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week. This rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area on Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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