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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 49
2018-09-11 16:46:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 107 WTNT31 KNHC 111446 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 ...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN LATER TODAY... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 65.3W ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM S OF BERMUDA ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. Additional watches may be required later today. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 65.3 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west- northwestward to northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane watch area Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Florence is expected to begin re- strengthening later today and continue a slow strengthening trend for the next day or so. While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet...2-4 ft Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear...4-6 ft Cape Fear to Cape Lookout including The Neuse and Pamlico River...6-12 ft Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...5-8 ft Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts to 30 inches near the storm's track over portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week. This rainfall could produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by late Thursday or Thursday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by Thursday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 49
2018-09-11 16:44:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 008 FONT11 KNHC 111443 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 2(18) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 2(21) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 3(25) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) 2(23) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 12(28) 3(31) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 16(30) 4(34) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 14(31) 4(35) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 20(33) 5(38) CHARLOTTESVIL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 22(47) 4(51) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 27(53) 5(58) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) DANVILLE VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 23(56) 4(60) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 1(18) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 22(57) 4(61) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 2(19) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 21(58) 4(62) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 3(20) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 45(52) 19(71) 3(74) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 13(29) 3(32) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 26(51) 4(55) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) GREENSBORO NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) 26(71) 4(75) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 20(31) 1(32) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 51(56) 24(80) 3(83) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 19(42) 2(44) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 1(17) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 47(51) 37(88) 4(92) 1(93) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 41(47) 8(55) 2(57) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 7(27) 2(29) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 53(58) 20(78) 3(81) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 19(41) 1(42) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 1(19) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 19(37) 4(41) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 63(85) 8(93) 2(95) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 51(54) 16(70) 2(72) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 12(43) 2(45) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 58(62) 34(96) 3(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 60(73) 8(81) 2(83) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 44(47) 10(57) 1(58) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 53(57) 39(96) 2(98) 1(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 63(74) 9(83) 1(84) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 45(47) 13(60) 1(61) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 62(85) 7(92) 1(93) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 55(58) 14(72) 2(74) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 14(47) 2(49) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 63(81) 8(89) 1(90) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 51(53) 14(67) 1(68) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 13(40) 2(42) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 42(44) 46(90) 3(93) X(93) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 54(61) 9(70) 1(71) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 11(47) 2(49) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 37(41) 18(59) 4(63) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) 2(23) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 15(33) 3(36) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 56(67) 12(79) 1(80) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 12(44) 3(47) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 10(23) 2(25) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 50(72) 8(80) 1(81) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 10(43) 2(45) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 8(22) 2(24) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 42(48) 12(60) 3(63) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 10(23) 2(25) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 14(40) 3(43) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 11(25) 3(28) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 3(21) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 4(20) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 49
2018-09-11 16:44:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 050 WTNT21 KNHC 111443 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 65.3W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 210SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 65.3W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 64.6W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.7N 67.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.4N 70.6W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.1N 73.1W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.6N 75.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.2N 77.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 35.0N 78.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 35.5N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 65.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-11 14:46:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FLORENCE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY... ...RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM AST Tue Sep 11 the center of Florence was located near 26.4, -64.6 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 48A
2018-09-11 14:46:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 896 WTNT31 KNHC 111151 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 48A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 800 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FLORENCE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY... ...RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.4N 64.6W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM S OF BERMUDA ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. Additional watches may be required later today. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 64.6 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west- northwestward to northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina on Thursday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. However, Florence is still a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Re-strengthening is forecast to occur during the next day or so, and Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.05 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet...2-4 ft Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear...4-6 ft Cape Fear to Cape Lookout including The Neuse and Pamlico River...6-12 ft Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...5-8 ft Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated maxima to 30 inches near Florence's track over portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and northern South Carolina through Saturday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by late Thursday or Thursday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by Thursday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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