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Hurricane Nora Forecast Advisory Number 14

2021-08-29 04:58:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 290258 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM EAST OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PLAYA PERULA TO ALTATA MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF SINALOA...SONORA...AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 105.5W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 300SE 180SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 105.5W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 105.5W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.8N 106.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.7N 107.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.4N 107.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.9N 108.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.6N 109.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.8N 110.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 28.6N 110.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 30.2N 110.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 105.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 29/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

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Hurricane Nora Graphics

2021-08-29 01:54:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 23:54:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 21:34:32 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Nora (EP4/EP142021)

2021-08-29 01:53:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NORA'S CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHWEST JALISCO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 the center of Nora was located near 20.2, -105.4 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 13A

2021-08-29 01:53:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 282353 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 700 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NORA'S CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHWEST JALISCO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 105.4W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Altata Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas tonight or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located near the coast of Mexico at latitude 20.2 North, longitude 105.4 West. Surface data from Mexico and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Nora made landfall along the northwest coast of Jalisco near Vincente Guerrero, and has continued to move near the coast since then. Nora is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward north-northwest is possible tonight and on Sunday, followed by a slower northwestward motion Sunday night through Tuesday. On the current forecast track, the center of Nora will continue to move near the coast of Mexico during the next several hours. It could then re-emerge over the Gulf of California, moving roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through early next week. However, even a small deviation of the hurricane's motion to the right could cause Nora to move further inland and dissipate. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days if Nora's center moves over the waters of the Gulf of California. However, weakening would likely occur if the center moves further inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue in portions of the southern parts of the hurricane warning area and are likely to spread northward within hurricane warning area through Sunday. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches this weekend into early next week along the west coast of Mexico from the Mexican states of Guerrero northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

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