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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 6

2021-10-11 16:57:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 111457 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 1500 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA SOUTHWARD TO ESCUINAPA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA NORTHWARD TO ALTATA...AND ALSO FROM ESCUINAPA SOUTHWARD TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING ALL THE ISLA MARIAS ARCHIPELAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LOS BARILLES SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA * SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO SAN BLAS * ISLA MARIAS * LOS BARILLES TO CABO SAN LUCAS A HURRICANE WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 108.1W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 108.1W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.9W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.8N 108.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.3N 109.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.1N 108.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 23.3N 107.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.7N 104.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.1N 100.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 108.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 11/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 5

2021-10-11 10:32:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110832 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 The tropical storm has been relatively steady in strength during the past several hours. A large area of deep convection continues, but the center is located near the northern edge of the thunderstorms due to northerly shear. An ASCAT-A pass from several hours ago showed maximum winds in the 40-45 kt range in the northeastern quadrant, and all of the latest Dvorak estimates are 3.0/45 kt. Based on this satellite data, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. Pamela is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt, and a west-northwest to northwest motion should continue for about another 12 hours as the storm moves in the flow on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. By tonight and early Tuesday, Pamela should reach the western periphery of the ridge, which should cause a turn toward the north. A faster motion to the northeast is expected beginning Tuesday night when the storm becomes embedded in the flow on the southeast side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough, and that should bring the cyclone inland over west-central Mexico on Wednesday. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the right of the previous one, to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids. Pamela has been gradually strengthening despite moderate northerly shear. The upper-level pattern is expected to become more favorable for the storm later today. These favorable winds aloft combined with warm SSTs and a moist environment should promote steady to rapid strengthening until Pamela reaches the coast of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance and continues to show Pamela becoming a dangerous major hurricane prior to landfall. After Pamela moves inland, rapid weakening is expected as the storm moves over the rugged terrain of west-central Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday, and it could bring life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds to a portion of that area. Residents in this area should monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. Hurricane watches will likely be required later this morning. 2. Pamela is expected to pass near or south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and could bring strong winds to the extreme southern portion of the peninsula. Watches could be required for portions of this area later today. 3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move over the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern portions of Baja California Sur Tuesday and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 16.2N 107.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 16.9N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 18.2N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 19.9N 109.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 21.8N 108.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 24.2N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 26.9N 103.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-10-11 10:30:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 454 WTPZ21 KNHC 110830 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0900 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR...SINALOA...DURANGO AND NAYARIT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAMELA. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THOSE STATES LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 107.6W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 107.6W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.9N 108.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.2N 109.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.9N 109.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.8N 108.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 24.2N 106.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 110SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 26.9N 103.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 107.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 4

2021-10-11 04:30:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 110230 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0300 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR...SINALOA...DURANGO AND NAYARIT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAMELA. WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THOSE STATES ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.8W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.8W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.4W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.5N 108.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.6N 109.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.0N 109.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.7N 109.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.5N 106.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 106.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2021-10-10 10:59:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100858 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 The system we have been monitoring over the last several days off the southern coast of Mexico has been gradually improving in organization. An earlier ASCAT-A pass at 0257 UTC indicated that a closed surface vortex was developing, especially after investigating the ambiguity wind solutions from the instrument. In addition, the 0600 UTC subjective Dvorak from TAFB was at T2.0/30 kt, which is in good agreement with the peak winds (29 kt) from the earlier scatterometer data. Since that time, convection near the estimated center has only increased in coverage and intensity. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on TD16-E, the first tropical cyclone in the East Pacific basin in nearly a month. The initial intensity has been set at 30 kt in agreement with the scatterometer and satellite intensity estimate. The current motion of the depression is estimated at 290/15 kt, though some uncertainty exists given the system is in its formative stages. At present, the cyclone is situated on the equatorward side of an expensive mid-level ridge centered over Mexico that stretches westward into the East Pacific. This ridge should continue to steer the tropical cyclone to the west-northwest over then next day or so. Thereafter, a strong shortwave trough is forecast to dig into the western United States, creating a pronounced weakness in the mid-level ridge steering the system. The net result of this synoptic pattern change is that the tropical cyclone will likely bend sharply right as the ridge becomes oriented to its east, leading to a turn north to then northeastward in the 48-72 hour forecast. This track evolution would likely steer the system to the mainland Mexican coast in around 96 hours. The latest track guidance is in pretty good agreement on the general track, though investigating the GFS and ECMWF ensembles solutions reveals significant uncertainty in the along-track spread of the current forecast track. The initial NHC track forecast has been chosen to lie near the consensus aids, splitting the difference between the TVCA and HCCA solutions. The environment over the depression appears quite favorable for intensification, with low shear (around 10 kt) high mid-level moisture (around 70 percent) and warm sea-surface temperatures (29-30 C) expected to persist for the next three days. It may take 12-24 hours for an inner core to become established, but after this structural change occurs, the system appears poised for substantial intensification. In fact, the latest GFS-SHIPS guidance indicates a 44 percent chance of a 65 knot increase in intensity over the next 72 hours. The first NHC intensity forecast follows suit, showing a peak intensity of 95 kt in 72 hours. It is worth noting that this intensity forecast is less than some of the more bullish guidance, including the latest HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and this initial forecast could be conservative. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 14.3N 102.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 15.1N 105.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 15.8N 107.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 16.6N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 17.8N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 19.0N 109.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 20.7N 109.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 25.2N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

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